Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:34:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
07 0x0713…d5c7 other 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$380
7 days−$380
14 days−$380
30 days−$266
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$170
crypto 18% −$211
sports 8% +$114
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -3.3% -12.5% 33% 33% -41.3%
≤30d 10 +9.0% -1.3% 40% 40% -29.9%
≤90d 10 +9.0% -1.3% 40% 40% -29.9%
all 10 +9.0% -1.3% 40% 40% -29.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.3% 40% -29.9%
10% -10.8% 40% -36.6%
15% -19.4% 40% -42.8%
20% -27.3% 40% -48.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$130 vs −$131 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage30d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $312 −$218 -70%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $104 +$234 +225%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $58 +$138 +236%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 27 $62 −$62 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 31? Jun 27 $211 −$211 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $176 −$176 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 27 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $42 +$33 +79%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $95 +$114 +120%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 14¢ $94 9m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $312 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 29¢ $104 5h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 28¢ $58 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 51¢ $76 46h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $42 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 33¢ $176 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $62 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 47¢ $43 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $211 29d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $95 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records