Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:49:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x0714…c23b politics 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%3W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 57% −$5
sports 20% −$1
other 7% −$1
crypto 5% $0
world 5% +$1
culture 3% $0
economics 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -12.9% -21.2% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 6 -10.8% -19.3% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 7 -9.3% -17.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 48 -9.4% -18.0% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -25.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -33.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -39.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses3 / 45
Open positions2
Markets (closed)48 / 50
History coverage234d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 29 $2 $0 -19%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 29 $99 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -45%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $98 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $205 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $207 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $103 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 24 $99 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026? Feb 06 $101 +$1 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Feb 01 $101 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 28 $1 $0 -10%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 28 $99 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 27 $1 $0 -50%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 27 $101 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 25 $102 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 23 $103 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 19 $1 $0 -12%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 19 $102 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 18 $108 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 17 $2 $0 -12%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 15 $2 $0 -17%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 15 $208 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 13 $1 $0 -25%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 13 $102 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 12 $101 $0 +0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 10 $103 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 06 $101 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 02 $101 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 31 $102 $0 +0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 28 $101 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 25 $103 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? Dec 20 $102 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 19 $103 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 17 $102 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 13 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 11 $208 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 04 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 30 $1 $0 -66%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 27 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 22 $103 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 18 $83 $0 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 18 $1 $0 -25%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 16 $77 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 15 $105 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 14 $1 $0 -33%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 12 $107 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 09 $105 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $99 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $99 42h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 42h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $98 4d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $98 5d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $101 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $101 9d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $103 10d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $103 33d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $99 51d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $99 122d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $99 125d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $99 131d
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $101 144d
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? BUY No 100¢ $101 149d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 0¢ $1 152d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 152d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $99 152d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $99 153d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.45 · official $1.45 (match) · 281 history records