Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T14:22:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
07 0x0716…281f other 60 markets active 6h ago coverage 612d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate25%15W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$308per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 75% −$14
politics 18% −$12
other 5% +$21
crypto 2% +$2
sports 1% −$12
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 14 +5.4% -4.6% 29% 7% -8.3%
≤90d 46 +1.9% -7.8% 26% 15% -8.9%
all 59 +1.3% -8.3% 25% 12% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 12% -9.6%
10% -17.1% 12% -18.3%
15% -25.1% 12% -26.1%
20% -32.5% 10% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

612d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses15 / 44
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage612d
Avg bet$308
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $140 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 28 $6 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 27 $96 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $24 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 26 $12 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $82 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $12 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $12 $0 -0%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $6 +$5 +76%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 06 $11 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $17 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 05 $18 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? Jun 05 $33 $0 +0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $16 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $13 $0 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $11 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $15 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $68 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $75 $0 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-05-13? May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $77 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $75 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $6 +$7 +129%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 07 $141 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $73 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $67 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $67 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 19 $74 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $68 $0 -0%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $6 +$11 +172%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 08 $9 +$8 +90%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $15 +$17 +114%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 07 $12 +$8 +64%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Virginia Cavaliers Apr 06 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Apr 03 $21 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? Apr 03 $41 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in February? Mar 05 $78 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 13 $78 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 01 $13,522 −$14 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $6 5h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $6 7h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $8 28h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $8 31h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $12 2d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 2d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $15 7d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 7d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $24 8d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 8d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 8d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 9d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 9d
Will Solana reach $140 in June? BUY No 100¢ $47 11d
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 56¢ $6 13d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 15d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 15d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $13 21d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $13 21d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $11 22d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 22d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $17 23d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $17 23d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 31d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 31d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $16 32d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $16 32d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $15 33d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 33d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $18 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.33 · official $47.33 (match) · 264 history records