Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:02:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x0717…835e crypto 140 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,429 (-6%) realized −$1,452 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate46%64W / 75L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$180per market
Trades / day26.3pace
Fees−$400est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$320
7 days−$320
14 days−$320
30 days−$1,843
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$1,493
crypto 11% −$327
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -31.3% -37.8% 43% 35% -20.8%
≤30d 139 -17.4% -25.2% 46% 39% -16.2%
≤90d 139 -17.4% -25.2% 46% 39% -16.2%
all 139 -17.4% -25.2% 46% 39% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.2% 39% -16.2%
10% ← realistic here -32.4% 35% -24.2%
15% -38.9% 21% -31.5%
20% -44.9% 19% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$78 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$1,452
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses64 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$400
Open positions1
Markets (closed)139 / 140
History coverage25d
Avg bet$180
Trades / day26.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka West Indies 31¢ 48¢ $41 $64 +$23 (+55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$14 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$7 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$6 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $92 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $43 −$36 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $32 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $32 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $262 −$86 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 31¢ $42 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $16 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $6 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.58 · official $63.58 (match) · 771 history records