Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:30:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
07 0x071b…9767 crypto 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$9 (+10%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%43W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day22.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 +7.5% -2.8% 57% 57% -3.3%
≤30d 76 +7.5% -2.8% 57% 57% -3.3%
≤90d 76 +7.5% -2.8% 57% 57% -3.3%
all 76 +7.5% -2.8% 57% 57% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.8% 57% -3.3%
10% ← realistic here -12.1% 51% -12.6%
15% -20.6% 34% -21.0%
20% -28.3% 20% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses43 / 33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)76 / 76
History coverage5d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day22.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$3 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $0 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $0 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 154 history records