Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:34:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
07 0x0722…e026 crypto 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$586 (-24%) realized −$433 · open −$153
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate55%11W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$20
14 days−$474
30 days−$474
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% +$18
world 49% −$657
other 2% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -5.2% -14.2% 53% 35% -8.1%
≤30d 20 -7.7% -16.5% 55% 35% -28.7%
≤90d 20 -7.7% -16.5% 55% 35% -28.7%
all 20 -7.7% -16.5% 55% 35% -28.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 35% -28.7%
10% -24.5% 20% -35.6%
15% -31.8% 15% -41.8%
20% -38.4% 15% -47.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$76 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$433
Unrealized−$153
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses11 / 9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)20 / 22
History coverage15d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 28¢ 3¢ $168 $16 −$152 (-90%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 47¢ 26¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 27 $102 +$15 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 27 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 27 $102 −$15 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 27 $202 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 27 $52 −$18 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 27 $230 −$14 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 27 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 27 $107 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 27 $102 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$71 +268%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Jun 26 $63 +$2 +3%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $42 +$12 +29%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $415 +$24 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $530 −$530 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $116 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $86 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $110 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $107 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $110 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $122 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $44 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 3h
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? SELL No 81¢ $65 19h
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? BUY No 79¢ $32 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.00 · official $19.00 (match) · 66 history records