Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:05:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
07 0x0729…df57 sports 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$26 (+4%) realized +$28 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%18W / 15L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days+$83
14 days+$64
30 days+$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$57
other 11% +$3
economics 8% $0
crypto 4% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +14.4% +3.5% 62% 62% +10.3%
≤30d 33 +4.0% -5.9% 55% 55% +2.6%
≤90d 33 +4.0% -5.9% 55% 55% +2.6%
all 33 +4.0% -5.9% 55% 55% +2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 55% +2.6%
10% -14.9% 52% -7.3%
15% -23.1% 52% -16.2%
20% -30.7% 48% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$13 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized+$28
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses18 / 15
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions4
Markets (closed)33 / 41
History coverage8d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 20¢ 20¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 64¢ 64¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 57¢ 56¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 42¢ 40¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 22 $27 +$5 +18%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 22 $25 +$31 +124%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $10 +$7 +64%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $15 +$19 +123%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$8 +38%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $20 +$18 +90%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $10 +$12 +114%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $7 −$7 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Will Switzerland w Jun 18 $10 +$14 +140%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +56%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo Jun 17 $10 +$8 +79%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 +$28 +109%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $25 +$20 +79%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$8 +76%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 15 $10 +$7 +67%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $10 +$13 +123%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $12 −$12 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $20 +$26 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $15 +$20 +128%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $25 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $25 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL Yes 12¢ $31 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 64¢ $25 3h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 44¢ $25 19h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $17 21h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $10 25h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2 BUY 31¢ $20 25h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 40¢ $10 30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 41¢ $36 44h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 SELL 94¢ $34 44h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 BUY 41¢ $15 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 44¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 41¢ $10 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes $27 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $28 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 36¢ $14 2d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 57¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 25¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 75¢ $25 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 35¢ $7 3d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 46¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $10 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Will Switzerland w BUY 41¢ $10 3d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 47¢ $10 3d
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes $16 4d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 20¢ $52 4d
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $10 4d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo BUY No 55¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.31 · official $123.32 (match) · 64 history records