Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:40:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

07
0x072c…bd4a
crypto · 244 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$301 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$182 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Net worth$910
Realized+$182
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses209 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions14
Markets (closed)232 / 244
History coverage580d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 14 History 232 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$154
7 days−$173
14 days−$156
30 days−$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $300 $300 −$0 (-0%)
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $140 $140 −$0 (-0%)
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 100¢ 99¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 100¢ 98¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027? No 93¢ 95¢ $52 $52 +$1 (+2%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $51 +$0 (+0%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 94¢ 96¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 85¢ 94¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 97¢ $19 $19 +$1 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 67¢ 66¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
McDonald's CEO out by June 30? No 94¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 97¢ 95¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? No 39¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Yes $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
US bank failure by January 31? No 95¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will "Left" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast? No $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will "The Naked Gun" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $17m and $20m? Yes 83¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1? Yes 17¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 100 and 110 million views on week 1? Yes 17¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 100 and 110 million views on wee Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Karl" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $17 +$3 +18%
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $82 −$49 -60%
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" or "Sponsoring" during his n Jun 13 $215 −$173 -81%
Will MrBeast say "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" 5+ times during Jun 13 $195 +$12 +6%
Will MrBeast say "Lamborghini" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $75 +$2 +2%
Will MrBeast say "Subscriber" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $253 +$54 +21%
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? Jun 12 $22 −$22 -98%
Will XRP reach $1.35 on June 9? Jun 10 $556 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 9? Jun 09 $77 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 June 1-7? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $120 June 1-7? Jun 08 $153 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 June 1-7? Jun 08 $463 +$1 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 June 1-7? Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 June 1-7? Jun 08 $64 +$1 +1%
Will Solana dip to $20 June 1-7? Jun 08 $40 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 June 1-7? Jun 08 $159 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $499 +$1 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $418 +$17 +4%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 01 $64 $0 +0%
Will "Amortization" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade St May 20 $4 $0 +11%
Will "Patreon" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand P May 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will "Apple" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Pod May 20 $39 +$1 +2%
Will "Left" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podc May 20 $0 $0 -96%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 20 $51 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 19 $409 +$7 +2%
GTA VI released before June 2026? May 17 $52 +$1 +3%
Will XRP reach $2.10 May 4-10? May 12 $2 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 12 $296 +$17 +6%
Will XRP reach $2.10 April 27-May 3? May 07 $2 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner May 03 $5 $0 +1%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 01 $26 $0 +2%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in April? May 01 $30 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in April? May 01 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Ethena reach $0.32 in April? Apr 24 $89 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast hit 490 million subscribers by April 30? Apr 22 $205 +$2 +1%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 April 6-12? Apr 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $2.00 April 6-12? Apr 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? Apr 15 $189 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.10 March 30-April 5? Apr 08 $159 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in March? Apr 01 $20 $0 +1%
Will Ethena dip to $0.00 in March? Apr 01 $29 +$1 +3%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in March? Apr 01 $214 +$4 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 01 $222 +$1 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Mar 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will "back to friends - sombr" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Mar 08 $206 $0 +0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Solana dip to $20 in February? Mar 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Mar 01 $469 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 73% +$221
other 12% −$83
politics 7% +$43
world 4% +$69
culture 2% +$20
weather 1% −$83
economics 0% −$7
tech 0% +$1
sports 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 67¢ $14 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 100¢ $37 1h
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" or "Sponsoring" during his n SELL Yes $2 14h
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? SELL Yes $1 14h
Will MrBeast say "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" 5+ times during BUY Yes 99¢ $10 14h
Will MrBeast say "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" 5+ times during BUY Yes 99¢ $148 14h
Will MrBeast say "Subscriber" during his next YouTube video? SELL Yes 99¢ $198 14h
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? SELL Yes $2 14h
Will MrBeast say "Lamborghini" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 99¢ $75 14h
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? BUY No 85¢ $17 25h
Will MrBeast say "Subscriber" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 80¢ $80 38h
Will MrBeast say "Karl" during his next YouTube video? BUY No 85¢ $17 41h
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? BUY No 15¢ $2 2d
Will MrBeast say "Subscriber" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 87¢ $23 2d
Will MrBeast say "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" 5+ times during BUY Yes 77¢ $37 2d
Will MrBeast say "Subscriber" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 83¢ $88 2d
Will MrBeast say "Subscriber" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 81¢ $29 2d
Will MrBeast say "Subscriber" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 78¢ $34 2d
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? BUY No 44¢ $21 2d
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" or "Sponsoring" during his n BUY Yes 15¢ $3 2d
Will MrBeast say "Lamborghini" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 2d
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" or "Sponsoring" during his n BUY Yes 32¢ $2 2d
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" or "Sponsoring" during his n BUY Yes 32¢ $62 2d
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" or "Sponsoring" during his n BUY Yes 35¢ $35 2d
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" or "Sponsoring" during his n BUY Yes 39¢ $30 2d
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 2d
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 50¢ $9 2d
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" or "Sponsoring" during his n BUY Yes 39¢ $9 2d
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" or "Sponsoring" during his n BUY Yes 39¢ $1 2d
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -21.8% -29.2% 72% 11% -15.9%
≤30d 28 -16.7% -24.6% 79% 11% -12.8%
≤90d 45 -9.9% -18.5% 87% 7% -11.4%
all 232 -4.6% -13.7% 90% 8% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 8% -9.2%
10% -22.0% 2% -17.8%
15% -29.5% 2% -25.8%
20% -36.4% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $910.10 · official $910.10 (match) · 2604 history records