Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:26:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

07
0x072d…0d35
crypto · 72 markets active 2h ago
3.0score
−$6,433 -17%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6,302 · open −$131
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$6,302
Unrealized−$131
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses28 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)39%
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions3
Markets (closed)69 / 72
History coverage251d
Avg bet$521
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 3 History 69 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1,971
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-99%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? No 5¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-99%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? No 18¢ 0¢ $69 $0 −$69 (-100%)
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants Chicago White Sox 44¢ 0¢ $1,756 $0 −$1,756 (-100%)
Bruins vs. Blue Jackets Blue Jackets 55¢ 0¢ $260 $0 −$260 (-100%)
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's French Open? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $6 −$6 -97%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants May 24 $1,786 −$1,756 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 24 $209 −$209 -100%
Bruins vs. Blue Jackets Apr 13 $260 −$260 -100%
Wizards vs. Cavaliers Apr 12 $142 +$125 +88%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $51 +$91 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Feb 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Feb 16 $134 −$126 -94%
Solana Up or Down - February 2, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Feb 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Feb 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Lakers vs. Spurs Feb 16 $136 −$136 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Feb 16 $520 −$520 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Feb 16 $550 −$550 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Feb 16 $549 −$549 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Feb 16 $488 −$488 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Feb 16 $1,223 −$614 -50%
Team World vs. Team USA Stars Feb 16 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will the World team win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game? Feb 16 $1,752 −$1,752 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Feb 16 $1,900 −$1,900 -100%
Will the USA Stars team win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game? Feb 16 $1,255 +$1,711 +136%
Team World vs. Team USA Stripes Feb 15 $750 +$6 +1%
Will Keshad Johnson win the 2026 NBA dunk contest? Feb 15 $1,118 +$3,182 +285%
Will Damian Lillard win the 2026 NBA 3-point contest? Feb 14 $204 +$928 +455%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Feb 13 $183 −$183 -100%
Bucks vs. Thunder Feb 13 $93 +$90 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Feb 12 $453 −$344 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Feb 11 $392 +$158 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 7PM ET Feb 11 $324 −$324 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Feb 11 $169 −$169 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Feb 11 $231 −$231 -100%
Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 51.5 Feb 11 $498 −$498 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Feb 11 $554 −$554 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Feb 11 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Feb 11 $1,144 −$1,144 -100%
Rockets vs. Kings Feb 11 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Feb 11 $733 −$733 -100%
Chargers vs. Patriots Feb 11 $1,490 −$1,490 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Feb 11 $1,043 −$1,043 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Feb 11 $2,043 −$990 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Feb 11 $596 −$553 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Feb 11 $1,015 +$850 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Feb 11 $857 +$874 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Feb 11 $527 −$484 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Feb 11 $814 +$821 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Feb 11 $812 +$600 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Feb 11 $782 +$583 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Feb 11 $400 +$876 +219%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Feb 11 $600 +$675 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Feb 11 $45 +$64 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Feb 04 $500 −$330 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 60% −$7,217
sports 40% +$861
tech 0% −$131
other 0% +$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 18¢ $68 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 20¢ $3 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY No 5¢ $30 12h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? BUY Yes 5¢ $35 12h
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 14d
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago White Sox 44¢ $1,786 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $105 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 19d
Bruins vs. Blue Jackets BUY Blue Jackets 55¢ $260 60d
Wizards vs. Cavaliers SELL Wizards 19¢ $267 60d
Wizards vs. Cavaliers BUY Wizards 10¢ $142 60d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL Yes 100¢ $142 60d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1,441 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $459 116d
Will the USA Stars team win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,966 116d
Will the USA Stars team win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game? BUY Yes 42¢ $1,255 116d
Will the World team win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game? BUY Yes 29¢ $948 116d
Will the World team win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game? BUY Yes 29¢ $16 116d
Will the World team win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 116d
Will the World team win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 116d
Will the World team win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 116d
Will the World team win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game? BUY Yes 29¢ $9 116d
Will the World team win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game? BUY Yes 29¢ $9 116d
Will the World team win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 116d
Will the World team win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 116d
Will the World team win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game? BUY Yes 29¢ $58 116d
Will the World team win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game? BUY Yes 29¢ $7 116d
Will the World team win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game? BUY Yes 29¢ $9 116d
Will the World team win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 116d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 6 -22.5% -29.8% 33% 33% -84.8%
all 69 -0.6% -10.1% 41% 38% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 38% -24.8%
10% -18.7% 38% -32.0%
15% -26.5% 38% -38.6%
20% -33.7% 35% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.86 · official $0.86 (match) · 234 history records