Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:55:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x0732…7d4a other 108 markets active 0h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$163 (-8%) realized −$161 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%44W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$118
7 days+$2
14 days−$133
30 days−$267
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$56
other 39% −$326
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -18.7% -26.4% 51% 48% -9.4%
≤30d 96 -19.7% -27.4% 46% 44% -21.5%
≤90d 96 -19.7% -27.4% 46% 44% -21.5%
all 96 -19.7% -27.4% 46% 44% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.4% 44% -21.5%
10% -34.3% 40% -29.0%
15% -40.7% 30% -35.9%
20% -46.5% 21% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$18 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized−$161
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses44 / 52
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions12
Markets (closed)96 / 108
History coverage65d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 42¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Over 70¢ 69¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 23¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+35%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 11¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-30%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 21¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 42¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1 $0 +13%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $21 +$23 +108%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 28 $42 +$14 +34%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -89%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $1 $0 +32%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $2 +$2 +79%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 28 $37 +$15 +40%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $37 +$30 +82%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $32 −$32 -100%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $33 +$21 +63%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $32 −$32 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 $0 +20%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $32 +$15 +46%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $31 +$18 +58%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $33 +$18 +56%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $53 −$53 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $53 −$53 -100%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $1 +$1 +61%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $52 +$19 +36%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $52 +$31 +61%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $53 +$32 +61%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $53 −$50 -95%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $11 −$4 -39%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $52 −$52 -100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1 $0 +15%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2 +$2 +84%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$1 +27%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $5 +$4 +76%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $52 +$17 +32%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $152 +$81 +53%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 +$66 +131%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 −$1 -20%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $1 $0 -45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $3 12m
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $10 17m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 17m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 19m
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $32 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 56¢ $37 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $42 3h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 3h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 42¢ $11 12h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 50¢ $11 12h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 72¢ $31 12h
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 28¢ $32 13h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 14h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 14h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 14h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 68¢ $10 15h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 15h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 15h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 15h
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $1 18h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $2 18h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 68¢ $37 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $37 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $37 24h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $32 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.34 · official $82.34 (match) · 255 history records