Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:11:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

07
0x0734…7dfd
world · 67 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$9 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$9 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses22 / 42
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)64 / 67
History coverage515d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 3 History 64 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? No 19¢ 22¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+13%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 28¢ 23¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-15%)
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $19 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $74 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $86 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $42 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $2 $0 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 18 $20 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $47 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $22 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $42 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $161 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $6 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $1 $0 -4%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $1 $0 +3%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $116 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $52 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $91 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 20 $45 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $54 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 16 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $45 $0 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $41 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 15 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 13 $1 $0 -3%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $42 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $46 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $1 $0 -3%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $42 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $42 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 09 $2 $0 -10%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 08 $42 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $43 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $42 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $2 $0 -3%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 05 $1 $0 -23%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $14 $0 +0%
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? Mar 30 $6 $0 -0%
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? Mar 30 $17 +$1 +5%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 28 $46 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 28 $46 $0 +0%
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Mar 27 $47 −$1 -2%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the Mar 27 $43 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 29% +$2
other 27% +$1
politics 26% $0
sports 16% −$11
economics 3% $0
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $32 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $8 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $39 3h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $36 5h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $3 5h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $42 8h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 19¢ $13 12h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 19¢ $13 12h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $15 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $14 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $10 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $22 6d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $32 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $39 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $4 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $34 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $46 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $46 7d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $34 7d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $8 7d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $42 7d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 8d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 8d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $42 8d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $42 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 53 -2.6% -11.9% 32% 0% -9.5%
all 64 -4.8% -13.9% 34% 5% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 5% -10.0%
10% -22.1% 5% -18.6%
15% -29.7% 3% -26.5%
20% -36.6% 3% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.43 · official $3.31 (match) · 245 history records