Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:49:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x0736…c8a1 crypto 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (68 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$17 (-2%) realized −$23 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate63%12W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day68.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$45
14 days−$51
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (68 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +1.2% -8.5% 71% 18% -13.9%
≤30d 19 +0.0% -9.5% 63% 16% -14.2%
≤90d 19 +0.0% -9.5% 63% 16% -14.2%
all 19 +0.0% -9.5% 63% 16% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover68.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 16% -14.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 5% -22.4%
15% -26.1% 0% -29.9%
20% -33.3% 0% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
12.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$15 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses12 / 7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)19 / 21
History coverage8d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day68.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? No 85¢ 99¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+16%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? No 54¢ 60¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 15? Jun 15 $47 +$4 +9%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? Jun 15 $136 −$19 -14%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $119 −$23 -20%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? Jun 14 $67 +$3 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? Jun 13 $100 −$33 -33%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? Jun 12 $7 $0 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $102 −$20 -20%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 11? Jun 11 $49 +$4 +9%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 11? Jun 11 $52 +$14 +27%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? Jun 11 $44 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 12? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -9%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 10? Jun 10 $55 +$9 +16%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 10? Jun 10 $50 +$5 +10%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 9? Jun 09 $51 +$7 +14%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 9? Jun 09 $16 +$1 +10%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 9? Jun 08 $2 $0 -11%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 8? Jun 08 $72 −$6 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 39¢ $0 7m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? BUY No 58¢ $3 7m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 40¢ $3 8m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 36¢ $0 13m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 39¢ $0 14m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 15m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? BUY No 58¢ $1 16m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? BUY No 50¢ $1 45m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? BUY No 50¢ $5 45m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? BUY No 56¢ $1 47m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? BUY No 56¢ $1 47m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL No 60¢ $1 49m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL No 56¢ $2 51m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL No 56¢ $6 51m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 45¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 47¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 47¢ $4 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 47¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 47¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 47¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 47¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 45¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 44¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 46¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 48¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 40¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 41¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 40¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 40¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.31 · official $49.00 (match) · 559 history records