Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:14:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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07 0x073a…91e7 sports 109 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 96d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,657 (+0%) realized +$9,034 · open −$6,377
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate26%25W / 71L
Whale WR12%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,533per market
Trades / day33.8pace
Fees−$7,186est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$56,367now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 97d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$26,278
other 21% −$6,093
world 3% +$573
politics 3% +$1,333
crypto 1% +$44,418
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)+6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +25.5% +13.5% 60% 60% +15.7%
≤30d 9 +233.9% +202.1% 44% 44% +14.4%
≤90d 81 +20.5% +9.0% 26% 11% -13.3%
all 96 +17.5% +6.3% 26% 11% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.3% 11% -12.0%
10% -3.9% 10% -20.5%
15% ← realistic here -13.2% 8% -28.1%
20% -21.7% 4% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 12% (≥$9,576) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late +41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
27.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,679 vs −$752 · ×3.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$56,367
Realized+$9,034
Unrealized−$6,377
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses25 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Est. fees paid−$7,186
Open positions12
Markets (closed)96 / 109
History coverage97d ⚠
Avg bet$5,533
Trades / day33.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $30,500 $23,750 −$6,750 (-22%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 76¢ $6,000 $8,500 +$2,500 (+42%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 66¢ $6,336 $5,764 −$572 (-9%)
Weed rescheduled by December 31? Yes 34¢ 33¢ $4,130 $3,960 −$170 (-4%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $3,239 $3,824 +$585 (+18%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $1,382 $2,387 +$1,005 (+73%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $1,258 $1,597 +$339 (+27%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1,501 $1,496 −$5 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1,501 $1,495 −$6 (-0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,501 $1,476 −$25 (-2%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes $3,038 $1,377 −$1,661 (-55%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Yes 14¢ $2,358 $742 −$1,617 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $6,389 +$2,411 +38%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,517 +$864 +57%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 Jun 22 $5 $0 -3%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $6,011 −$636 -11%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $6,854 +$3,146 +46%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5,220 −$156 -3%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 06 $7,770 −$1,020 -13%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 06 $4,968 −$282 -6%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 31 $299 +$42,191 +14091%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $5 −$1 -25%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 10 $1,362 −$272 -20%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $1,716 −$1,716 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 08 $1,950 −$20 -1%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31? May 08 $1,748 +$706 +40%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 8? May 08 $1,221 −$276 -23%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 05 $1,872 −$166 -9%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 4? May 04 $99 +$3 +3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 4? May 04 $1,368 $0 +0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 01 $2,296 −$66 -3%
Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox May 01 $1,749 −$25 -1%
Pistons vs. Magic May 01 $1,400 −$60 -4%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 01 $2,100 −$25 -1%
Spread: Celtics (-8.5) Apr 28 $460 $0 +0%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 26 $1,935 −$855 -44%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 26 $1,620 −$45 -3%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 218.5 Apr 26 $2,754 −$264 -10%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 229.5 Apr 26 $2,070 −$2,070 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Apr 25 $478 +$2 +0%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) Apr 25 $1,520 $0 +0%
Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 213.5 Apr 25 $3,080 −$47 -2%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 24 $10,875 −$450 -4%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Apr 24 $7,228 −$267 -4%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? Apr 24 $3,280 −$25 -1%
Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 215.5 Apr 24 $7,277 −$117 -2%
Spread: Celtics (-6.5) Apr 24 $120 $0 -0%
Sunderland AFC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 24 $1,681 −$38 -2%
Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 206.5 Apr 24 $782 $0 +0%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 220.5 Apr 23 $3,825 −$425 -11%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $3,040 +$4,677 +154%
Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 216.5 Apr 23 $3,675 +$2 +0%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 23 $1,585 $0 -0%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $5,360 +$2,561 +48%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5) Apr 22 $3,825 +$375 +10%
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 218.5 Apr 22 $17 $0 -0%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 22 $7,425 −$375 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $159 −$6 -4%
Hawks vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Apr 20 $3,675 $0 -0%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 222.5 Apr 20 $3,750 $0 +0%
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels Apr 18 $3,980 −$3,651 -92%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Apr 18 $4 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,544 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1,540 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1,540 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY 55¢ $1,520 2h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 SELL No 46¢ $4 15h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY No 46¢ $2 15h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY No 46¢ $2 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 63¢ $1,517 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? AN BUY 17¢ $922 30h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 62¢ $5,374 37h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 57¢ $5,064 10d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $5,220 10d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $752 10d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 10d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 10d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 10d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 10d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 10d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $9 10d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $9 10d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $9 10d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $9 11d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $9 11d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $9 11d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $9 11d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $9 11d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $9 11d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $9 11d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $9 11d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $9 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56,367.45 · official $58,772.68 · 3500 history records