Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:25:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
07 0x073b…16ec other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$121 (-23%) realized −$111 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% −$154
other 19% −$26
sports 12% +$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-37.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +53.8% +39.2% 100% 100% +39.2%
≤30d 1 +53.8% +39.2% 100% 100% +39.2%
≤90d 7 -49.1% -54.0% 29% 29% -22.8%
all 9 -30.6% -37.2% 33% 33% -31.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.2% 33% -31.3%
10% -43.2% 33% -37.8%
15% -48.7% 33% -43.8%
20% -53.7% 33% -49.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$30 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$111
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage107d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$11 +53%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) May 12 $50 +$47 +93%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $55 −$50 -91%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-03-15? Mar 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Jaxson Hayes: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Mar 15 $10 +$10 +102%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? Mar 14 $298 −$99 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $41 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 13h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026 BUY Yes 17¢ $10 13h
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 37d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 37d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 37d
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) BUY Cavaliers 51¢ $50 43d
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 84d
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $45 86d
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 86d
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-03-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 100d
Jaxson Hayes: Rebounds O/U 3.5 SELL Yes 99¢ $20 100d
Jaxson Hayes: Rebounds O/U 3.5 BUY Yes 49¢ $10 100d
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $7 100d
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $193 106d
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $298 106d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.47 · official $70.47 (match) · 18 history records