Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:58:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
07 0x073d…b69d crypto 408 markets active 0h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$40 (+1%) realized +$49 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate61%247W / 160L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$233
7 days+$233
14 days+$233
30 days+$233
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$103
politics 4% −$2
world 2% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -4.0% -13.1% 66% 51% +6.3%
≤30d 35 -4.0% -13.1% 66% 51% +6.3%
≤90d 53 -16.4% -24.4% 55% 45% +1.4%
all 407 -8.7% -17.4% 61% 57% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 57% -8.1%
10% -25.3% 49% -16.9%
15% -32.5% 37% -25.0%
20% -39.1% 24% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$191
Realized+$49
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses247 / 160
Open positions1
Markets (closed)407 / 408
History coverage166d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 407 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? No 79¢ 76¢ $200 $191 −$9 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 94 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 25 $41 +$20 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 25 $122 +$11 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 25 $42 +$9 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 25 $105 +$122 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 25 $107 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$16 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 25 $103 +$11 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 25 $107 +$31 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 25 $121 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 25 $62 +$13 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$24 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$11 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 25 $16 +$10 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 25 $20 −$15 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 24 $31 +$19 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 24 $201 +$18 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 30 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 30 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 30 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 30 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 30 $18 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Apr 30 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Apr 30 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 02 $5 +$5 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 02 $16 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 02 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 02 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Apr 02 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Apr 02 $27 +$8 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Apr 02 $5 +$6 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $26 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $20 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $35 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $21 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $30 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $103 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $21 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $25 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $21 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $26 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $21 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $227 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $114 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $36 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $114 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $191.14 · official $191.14 (match) · 947 history records