Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:16:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x073e…8416 crypto 535 markets active 0h ago coverage 101d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big⚠ Covers last 101d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$3,079 (-6%) realized −$3,071 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate71%352W / 144L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day29.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$1,692now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$272
7 days−$355
14 days−$546
30 days−$590
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$1,011
finance 22% −$194
other 11% −$315
tech 5% −$44
sports 1% +$13
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -15.7% -23.8% 42% 2% -12.3%
≤30d 72 -21.5% -29.0% 42% 1% -13.2%
≤90d 301 -9.9% -18.5% 66% 27% -12.9%
all 496 -5.8% -14.7% 71% 40% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.7% 40% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 8% -20.8%
15% -30.4% 3% -28.5%
20% -37.2% 3% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$36 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$1,692
Realized−$3,071
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses352 / 144
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions39
Markets (closed)496 / 535
History coverage101d ⚠
Avg bet$103
Trades / day29.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 39 History 496 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Yes 79¢ 81¢ $237 $243 +$6 (+3%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $183 $182 −$1 (-0%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? No 67¢ 66¢ $166 $165 −$1 (-1%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? No 76¢ 82¢ $104 $113 +$8 (+8%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? No 97¢ 97¢ $97 $97 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in June? No 98¢ 98¢ $93 $93 −$0 (-0%)
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $172 in June? No 86¢ 88¢ $86 $88 +$2 (+2%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? No 88¢ 89¢ $82 $83 +$1 (+1%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? No 91¢ 92¢ $78 $79 +$0 (+1%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? Yes 77¢ 78¢ $77 $78 +$1 (+1%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? No 86¢ 84¢ $69 $67 −$2 (-2%)
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $224 in June? No 86¢ 85¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,550 Week of June 15 2026? Yes 1¢ 49¢ $1 $54 +$53 (+4795%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? No 79¢ 74¢ $53 $50 −$3 (-6%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? No 88¢ 88¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? No 67¢ 58¢ $43 $38 −$6 (-13%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in June? No 97¢ 96¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? No 89¢ 90¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+2%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 15 2026? Yes 24¢ 7¢ $69 $20 −$49 (-71%)
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in June? No 88¢ 90¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? No 98¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in June? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in June? No 79¢ 96¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+22%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 Week of June 15 2026? No 83¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Jun 19 $646 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Jun 19 $1,440 −$52 -4%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? Jun 19 $270 −$18 -7%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? Jun 19 $549 +$1 +0%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? Jun 19 $67 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 19 $774 −$60 -8%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $195 in June? Jun 19 $5 −$2 -45%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? Jun 19 $4 $0 -4%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? Jun 19 $241 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $17 $0 -1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? Jun 19 $447 +$2 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? Jun 19 $48 +$2 +5%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? Jun 19 $257 −$13 -5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Jun 19 $856 −$2 -0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? Jun 19 $2 −$1 -50%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 19 $677 $0 +0%
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by June 30? Jun 19 $0 $0 -12%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in June? Jun 19 $4 −$3 -75%
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by June 30? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,150 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 19 $147 +$8 +6%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 19 $345 −$22 -6%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30? Jun 19 $151 +$1 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? Jun 19 $514 −$4 -1%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? Jun 19 $371 −$8 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 19 $0 $0 +0%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $194 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $195 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $197 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $715 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $775 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $201 −$8 -4%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $153 −$132 -86%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $520 in June? Jun 18 $46 +$1 +1%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $4.25 Week of June 15 Jun 18 $119 +$21 +18%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $307 +$6 +2%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $168 in June? Jun 18 $30 +$1 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 18 $824 +$1 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $178 +$3 +2%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June? Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in June? Jun 18 $338 +$3 +1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $171 +$7 +4%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $105 +$3 +3%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $157.50 Week of June 15 20 Jun 18 $14 +$1 +7%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $13 $0 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 17 $83 −$83 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 17 $1,163 $0 -0%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $65 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 16 $53 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $216 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $20 $0 -0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,350 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $36 $0 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $715 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 11 $81 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 11 $104 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 15m
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 15m
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY Yes 79¢ $237 26m
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 45m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? SELL No 88¢ $133 52m
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY No 67¢ $43 57m
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? BUY No 87¢ $17 1h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $206 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $58 1h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? BUY No 76¢ $104 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? SELL No 84¢ $92 1h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? BUY No 67¢ $166 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 88¢ $134 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? SELL No 88¢ $67 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? SELL No 88¢ $110 1h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? SELL No 74¢ $29 1h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? SELL No 75¢ $38 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? SELL No 63¢ $82 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY No 80¢ $40 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY No 81¢ $48 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY No 65¢ $84 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in June? BUY No 98¢ $93 1h
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $32.5B by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $195 in June? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 2h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 2h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 2h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,691.98 · official $1,691.74 (match) · 3500 history records