Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:39:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x0741…cf84 politics 151 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate8%12W / 139L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$273per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$20
politics 35% −$18
sports 11% +$41
economics 3% −$2
crypto 2% −$2
world 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 113 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 151 -1.0% -10.5% 8% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 5% -9.5%
10% -19.0% 3% -18.2%
15% -26.9% 2% -26.1%
20% -34.0% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×11.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses12 / 139
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)151 / 151
History coverage130d
Avg bet$273
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 151 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $40 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $31 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $36 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $30 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $43 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $29 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $35 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $385 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $213 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $210 $0 -0%
Will Ugo Humbert win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 23 $265 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $205 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $219 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $206 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $221 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $188 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 16 $224 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $201 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $246 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $690 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $202 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $429 −$1 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $210 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $238 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $919 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $247 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 10 $225 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $227 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $239 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $198 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 07 $243 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $202 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $733 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $693 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $243 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $257 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $271 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $246 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $269 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $193 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $445 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $234 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 30 $252 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $216 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 27 $417 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $237 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $465 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $721 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 1h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 4h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 2d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 15d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $36 17d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $36 17d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 17d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 18d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 19d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 19d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $29 19d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $29 20d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 20d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 21d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $186 21d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $186 25d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $263 27d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $263 27d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $213 27d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $213 28d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $209 28d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $210 28d
Will Ugo Humbert win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $265 28d
Will Ugo Humbert win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $265 29d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $205 29d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $205 30d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $219 30d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $219 30d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $187 30d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $187 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 472 history records