Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:29:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
07 0x0742…1b48 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 157d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL −$4,753 (-29%) realized −$8,606 · open +$3,853
Gross ROI / mkt +106% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +79% what you keep after slip
Net edge+79%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,249per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$10,303now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 157d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$1,312
politics 33% −$1,254
world 6% −$232
tech 5% −$759
economics 0% +$2
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+86.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -48.6% -53.5% 0% 0% -48.7%
≤30d 5 -58.9% -62.8% 0% 0% -55.2%
≤90d 5 -58.9% -62.8% 0% 0% -55.2%
all 9 +106.3% +86.7% 22% 22% -54.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +86.7% 22% -54.4%
10% +68.8% 22% -58.8%
15% +52.5% 22% -62.7%
20% +37.5% 22% -66.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +106% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$709 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$10,303
Realized−$8,606
Unrealized+$3,853
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Open positions4
Markets (closed)9 / 13
History coverage157d
Avg bet$1,249
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? Yes 44¢ 76¢ $5,581 $9,513 +$3,932 (+70%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $671 $633 −$38 (-6%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Yes 64¢ 50¢ $197 $156 −$41 (-21%)
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? Yes 25¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 20 $4,593 −$1,211 -26%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 20 $1,105 −$1,063 -96%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Jun 20 $1,131 −$702 -62%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $54 −$5 -10%
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by May 31? Jun 05 $993 −$993 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 02 $2 +$2 +97%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? Feb 01 $14 +$179 +1277%
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? Jan 21 $759 −$759 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? Jan 20 $995 −$232 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? BUY Yes 87¢ $101 1h
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? BUY Yes 86¢ $316 1h
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? BUY Yes 93¢ $1,290 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $1,706 1h
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? BUY Yes 76¢ $34 1h
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? BUY Yes 69¢ $109 1h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $43 1h
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? BUY Yes 61¢ $328 1h
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? SELL Yes $429 1h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $142 1h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $49 1h
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? BUY Yes 72¢ $302 1h
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,286 1h
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $1,802 1h
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $130 2h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $54 2h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $55 33h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $503 6d
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by May 31? BUY Yes 74¢ $58 48d
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by May 31? BUY Yes 74¢ $181 48d
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by May 31? BUY Yes 69¢ $754 48d
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 84d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $1,105 95d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $196 137d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 138d
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? SELL Yes 96¢ $193 138d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 145d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $1,131 148d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 148d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $1,657 149d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,303.09 · official $10,303.09 (match) · 49 history records