Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:18:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x0748…92a1 crypto 203 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 16d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (205 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9,292 (+50%) realized +$9,298 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate55%111W / 91L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day204.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (205 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 117 -0.3% -9.8% 49% 19% -11.6%
≤30d 202 +2.5% -7.2% 55% 17% -9.0%
≤90d 202 +2.5% -7.2% 55% 17% -9.0%
all 202 +2.5% -7.2% 55% 17% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover204.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.2% 17% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -16.1% 7% -17.7%
15% -24.2% 4% -25.6%
20% -31.6% 3% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
16.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized+$9,298
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses111 / 91
Open positions1
Markets (closed)202 / 203
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$91
Trades / day204.8
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 202 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Down 82¢ 88¢ $85 $91 +$6 (+7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Up 18¢ 12¢ $22 $16 −$6 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 23 $3 +$6 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 23 $94 −$19 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 23 $53 −$7 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 23 $42 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 23 $42 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 23 $11 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 23 $17 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 23 $51 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $7 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 23 $86 −$7 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 23 $84 −$16 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 23 $129 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 23 $61 −$9 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 23 $158 −$10 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 23 $107 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 23 $48 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 23 $176 −$14 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $186 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 23 $121 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $133 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $259 −$20 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 23 $68 +$7 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 23 $204 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $96 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 23 $99 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 23 $42 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $82 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 23 $69 −$37 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 23 $46 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 23 $41 +$12 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 23 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $47 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 23 $24 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 23 $42 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 23 $71 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 23 $48 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 23 $7 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 23 $9 −$4 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 23 $38 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 23 $15 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 23 $13 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 23 $34 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 23 $49 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 23 $77 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 23 $4 +$1 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $11 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $16 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $30 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $0 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $7 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $8 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $15 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $14 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $18 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $6 8m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.09 · official $116.33 · 3500 history records