Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:41:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
07 0x0748…152a other 122 markets active 3h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$587 (+1%) realized +$587 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate22%27W / 94L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$922per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$616now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$11
14 days−$12
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$117
politics 29% −$39
sports 18% +$732
culture 3% −$3
crypto 1% +$4
world 1% $0
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 19% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 77 -8.6% -17.3% 12% 4% -10.0%
all 121 +2.1% -7.6% 22% 12% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 12% -9.1%
10% -16.5% 12% -17.8%
15% -24.5% 12% -25.7%
20% -31.9% 10% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,154) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$10 · ×5.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$616
Realized+$587
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses27 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)121 / 122
History coverage127d
Avg bet$922
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $616 $616 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $3,366 −$4 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $488 +$1 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $492 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $640 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2,644 −$3 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,718 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $657 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $652 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $522 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $2,584 −$3 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $518 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 03 $72 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 03 $549 +$1 +0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 09 $1,156 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $1,170 −$2 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1,172 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $1,194 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $1,154 −$2 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,197 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,197 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $1,086 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $1,144 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $1,660 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 02 $1,018 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? May 02 $737 +$2 +0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $1,115 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $398 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $1,193 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $409 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $3,714 −$5 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $1,049 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $987 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $2,046 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $3,324 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $1,124 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $1,004 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $5,625 −$6 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 11 $3,099 −$3 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $1,146 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $1,171 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $893 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $1,243 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 04 $1,564 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $6,835 −$7 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 02 $42 $0 +0%
Will EdgeX launch a token by September 30, 2026? Apr 01 $65 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $4,058 −$6 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $513 2h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $514 4h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $511 7h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $512 8h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $616 2d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $491 5d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $492 5d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $639 5d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $640 5d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $643 6d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $643 6d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $642 6d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $643 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $656 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $657 6d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $651 12d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $652 12d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $522 13d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $522 13d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $418 14d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $419 15d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $517 15d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $518 15d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $550 15d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $551 15d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $513 16d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $514 16d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $72 23d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $488 29d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $549 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $616.03 · official $616.04 (match) · 404 history records