Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:37:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x0749…5b21 sports 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 720d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$50 (-0%) realized −$53 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate76%62W / 20L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1,063now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days−$120
14 days−$120
30 days−$120
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$182
other 29% +$122
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -25.1% -32.2% 72% 1% -10.6%
≤30d 71 -25.1% -32.2% 72% 1% -10.6%
≤90d 72 -23.9% -31.1% 72% 3% -10.5%
all 82 -9.9% -18.5% 76% 13% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 13% -10.1%
10% -26.3% 12% -18.7%
15% -33.4% 12% -26.5%
20% -40.0% 10% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$29 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

720d coverage
Net worth$1,063
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses62 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions4
Markets (closed)82 / 86
History coverage720d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 5.5 Under 98¢ 99¢ $399 $400 +$1 (+0%)
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 3 Australia? No 99¢ 99¢ $286 $287 +$1 (+0%)
Exact Score: Paraguay 3 - 2 Australia? No 99¢ 99¢ $286 $287 +$1 (+0%)
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 2 Australia? No 95¢ 95¢ $88 $88 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 26 $54 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 3 Germany? Jun 26 $57 +$1 +2%
Jamie Leweling: 2+ assists Jun 26 $383 +$23 +6%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $57 +$1 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $153 −$153 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Set 2 Winner: Osaka vs Alexandrova Jun 25 $487 +$35 +7%
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs Julie&cie - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $164 +$10 +6%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $57 +$1 +1%
Son Heungmin: 3+ goals Jun 25 $843 +$27 +3%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Jun 25 $320 +$4 +1%
Set 1 Winner: Draper vs Jones Jun 25 $331 +$17 +5%
Set 1 Winner: Gorgodze vs Jeanjean Jun 25 $719 +$35 +5%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $57 +$2 +3%
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $282 +$8 +3%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 24 $114 +$4 +3%
James Rodríguez: 2+ assists Jun 24 $1,039 +$63 +6%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 24 $45 +$1 +3%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Jun 24 $51 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 Uzbekistan? Jun 24 $57 +$1 +2%
Rúben Neves: 2+ goals Jun 24 $57 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $113 +$3 +3%
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) Jun 24 $498 +$24 +5%
Set 1 Winner: Masarova vs Teichmann Jun 23 $341 −$341 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Marozsan vs Tabilo Jun 23 $166 +$8 +5%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $1,277 +$57 +4%
McDonald vs. Alves: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 22 $223 +$9 +4%
Choinski vs. Popyrin: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 22 $334 +$14 +4%
Set 2 Winner: Schwaerzler vs O'Connell Jun 22 $667 +$29 +4%
Set 2 Winner: Kraus vs Kalinskaya Jun 22 $24 +$1 +4%
Gaston vs. Midon: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 22 $48 +$2 +3%
Basilashvili vs. Ymer: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 22 $57 +$1 +1%
Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 1? Jun 22 $75 $0 +0%
Set 2 Winner: Brancaccio vs Gea Jun 22 $71 +$5 +6%
Set 1 Winner: Skatov vs Barrena Jun 22 $97 +$3 +4%
Set 2 Winner: Monday vs Schoolkate Jun 22 $119 +$6 +5%
Set 2 Winner: Dias vs Jacquet Jun 22 $214 +$21 +10%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $25 +$1 +5%
Set 2 Winner: Cadenasso vs Cina Jun 22 $48 +$2 +4%
Set 2 Winner: Napolitano vs Harris Jun 22 $49 +$2 +4%
Set 1 Winner: Napolitano vs Harris Jun 22 $354 +$20 +6%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $49 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $38 +$2 +4%
Chris Wood: 2+ assists Jun 22 $39 +$1 +3%
Víctor Muñoz: 2+ goals Jun 22 $19 +$1 +4%
Set Handicap: Dietrich (-1.5) vs Kopp (+1.5) Jun 21 $20 $0 +1%
Dellavedova vs. Roh: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 21 $25 $0 +1%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $20 $0 +2%
Ceddanne Rafaela: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $19 +$1 +3%
John Yeboah: 3+ goals Jun 21 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $57 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $57 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $57 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $57 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $57 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $57 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $57 1h
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 3 Australia? BUY No 99¢ $57 1h
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 3 Australia? BUY No 99¢ $57 1h
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 3 Australia? BUY No 99¢ $57 1h
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 3 Australia? BUY No 99¢ $57 1h
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 3 Australia? BUY No 99¢ $57 1h
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 2 Australia? BUY No 95¢ $37 1h
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 2 Australia? BUY No 95¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Paraguay 3 - 2 Australia? BUY No 99¢ $57 1h
Exact Score: Paraguay 3 - 2 Australia? BUY No 99¢ $57 1h
Exact Score: Paraguay 3 - 2 Australia? BUY No 99¢ $57 1h
Exact Score: Paraguay 3 - 2 Australia? BUY No 99¢ $57 1h
Exact Score: Paraguay 3 - 2 Australia? BUY No 99¢ $57 1h
Jamie Leweling: 2+ assists BUY No 94¢ $55 8h
Jamie Leweling: 2+ assists BUY No 94¢ $55 8h
Jamie Leweling: 2+ assists BUY No 94¢ $55 8h
Jamie Leweling: 2+ assists BUY No 94¢ $55 8h
Jamie Leweling: 2+ assists BUY No 94¢ $55 8h
Jamie Leweling: 2+ assists BUY No 94¢ $55 8h
Jamie Leweling: 2+ assists BUY No 94¢ $55 8h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Ecuador 98¢ $54 8h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 3 Germany? BUY No 98¢ $57 8h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit 99¢ $57 12h
Set 2 Winner: Osaka vs Alexandrova BUY Osaka 95¢ $55 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,062.70 · official $1,062.70 (match) · 364 history records