Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:40:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x0749…acc9 world 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 525d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-1%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate34%17W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$5
14 days−$6
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% +$6
world 30% −$4
sports 18% −$23
politics 16% +$3
finance 2% −$1
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.2% -10.6% 25% 0% -11.3%
≤30d 20 -0.3% -9.8% 30% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 31 -0.4% -9.9% 29% 0% -9.8%
all 50 -5.3% -14.3% 34% 16% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 16% -10.1%
10% -22.5% 12% -18.7%
15% -30.0% 8% -26.6%
20% -36.9% 6% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

525d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses17 / 33
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage525d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 16 $43 −$4 -8%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $40 −$2 -4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $44 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $43 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $29 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $15 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $45 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $84 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $16 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $129 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $41 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 03 $121 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $22 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $85 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $43 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $21 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 18 $19 +$1 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 18 $41 −$1 -2%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 17 $41 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 16 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $240 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $434 +$1 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $217 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $27 −$1 -4%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $232 −$3 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $221 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $244 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $221 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on February 15? Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Northern Colorado vs. Portland State Feb 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the match between FC Twente and Bodo Glimt end in a draw? Feb 14 $5 +$1 +32%
San Francisco vs. Gonzaga Feb 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bucks vs. Timberwolves Feb 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Benfica win on 2025-02-12? Feb 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Club Brugge win on 2025-02-12? Feb 13 $2 +$6 +257%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% or more in January? Feb 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Feb 12 $11 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump say "Bills" during Super Bowl pregame interview? Feb 11 $11 +$1 +13%
Jazz vs. Lakers Feb 11 $12 +$2 +15%
Will Dave Portnoy sell any $jailstool by Monday? Feb 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-11? Feb 10 $2 $0 -2%
Will the Eagles win Super Bowl LIX by 4-6 points? Feb 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Joe Burrow win NFL Comeback Player of the Year? Feb 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Pacers vs. Lakers Feb 09 $14 +$9 +64%
Will the match between Inter Milan and Monaco end in a draw? Feb 02 $5 +$1 +30%
Trump issues 100+ Executive Orders orders on Day 1? Feb 02 $6 +$2 +43%
Will Ohio State win by 6 or more points? Jan 11 $4 +$4 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $40 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 40¢ $28 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 45¢ $12 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $43 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $7 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $7 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $7 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $37 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $44 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $1 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $43 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $43 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $32 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $21 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $12 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $20 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $21 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 90¢ $29 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 90¢ $29 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.82 · official $39.82 (match) · 183 history records