Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:27:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x074a…6d8f other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$39 (-11%) realized −$36 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit8%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$41
sports 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-52.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -47.0% -52.1% 25% 25% -24.7%
≤30d 8 -47.0% -52.1% 25% 25% -24.7%
≤90d 8 -47.0% -52.1% 25% 25% -24.7%
all 8 -47.0% -52.1% 25% 25% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.1% 25% -24.7%
10% -56.7% 25% -31.9%
15% -60.9% 25% -38.5%
20% -64.7% 25% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$23 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized−$36
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)8 / 12
History coverage4d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 57¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$45 +90%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $41 +$55 +134%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $19 −$19 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $40 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 1h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $19 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 28h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $40 28h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 39h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 39h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 39h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $19 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.70 · official $125.70 (match) · 15 history records