Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:12:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

07 0x074c…7654 crypto 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$145 (+25%) realized +$115 · open +$30

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +62% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +41% what you keep after slip

Net edge+41%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%14W / 7L

Drawdown21%max

Avg bet$25per market

Trades / day7.6pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+47.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	+62.5%	+47.1%	67%	67%	+43.5%
≤30d	21	+62.5%	+47.1%	67%	67%	+43.5%
≤90d	21	+62.5%	+47.1%	67%	67%	+43.5%
all	21	+62.5%	+47.1%	67%	67%	+43.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+47.1%	67%	+43.5%
10%	+33.0%	67%	+29.8%
15%	+20.1%	67%	+17.2%
20%	+8.4%	67%	+5.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +59% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +63% · $-wt +59% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +85% → late +42% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$31 vs −$21 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.99 per $1 lost it wins $2.99

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$107

Realized+$115

Unrealized+$30

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses14 / 7

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)21 / 23

History coverage4d

Avg bet$25

Trades / day7.6

Drawdown21%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5)	Team Spirit	44¢	58¢	$60	$79	+$19 (+31%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28?	Yes	10¢	16¢	$17	$28	+$11 (+65%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Jun 25	$26	+$43	+166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Jun 25	$26	+$38	+146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Jun 25	$26	−$25	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Jun 25	$26	−$25	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Jun 25	$5	+$15	+280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Jun 25	$26	−$26	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Jun 25	$52	+$62	+119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Jun 25	$26	−$25	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Jun 25	$26	+$31	+120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Jun 25	$52	+$69	+132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Jun 25	$31	−$30	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Jun 25	$26	+$31	+119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Jun 25	$16	+$17	+107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Jun 25	$26	+$24	+93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Jun 25	$26	+$20	+76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Jun 25	$5	+$8	+159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Jun 25	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Jun 25	$26	+$28	+110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Jun 25	$33	+$31	+96%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5)	Jun 22	$11	−$11	-100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Jun 21	$7	+$21	+291%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	BUY Down	36¢	$26	6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	BUY Down	39¢	$26	12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	BUY Down	28¢	$26	16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	BUY Down	23¢	$26	21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	BUY Down	25¢	$5	28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	BUY Down	47¢	$26	37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	BUY Down	36¢	$26	42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	BUY Down	42¢	$26	46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	BUY Down	46¢	$26	47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	BUY Down	44¢	$26	52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	BUY Down	39¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	BUY Down	44¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	BUY Down	19¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	BUY Down	38¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	BUY Down	44¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Down	48¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Down	45¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Down	47¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$26	1h
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5)	BUY Team Spirit	45¢	$61	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	BUY Down	55¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	BUY Down	37¢	$5	1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28?	BUY Yes	10¢	$18	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	BUY Up	13¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	BUY Down	46¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$33	2h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5)	BUY Uruguay	22¢	$11	3d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	BUY Yes	25¢	$7	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.92 · official $106.92 (match) · 44 history records