Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:50:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
07 0x074f…0818 crypto 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$111 (+18%) realized +$111 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate83%15W / 3L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day30.0pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% +$40
other 16% +$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +9.6% -0.8% 83% 44% +10.6%
≤30d 18 +9.6% -0.8% 83% 44% +10.6%
≤90d 18 +9.6% -0.8% 83% 44% +10.6%
all 18 +9.6% -0.8% 83% 44% +10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.8% 44% +10.6%
10% ← realistic here -10.3% 28% +0.0%
15% -19.0% 17% -9.7%
20% -26.9% 11% -18.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$13 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.41 per $1 lost it wins $4.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$111
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses15 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $61 +$23 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$6 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$18 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$5 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$4 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$3 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$4 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 20 $20 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $80 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $80 +$7 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$3 +10%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $100 +$97 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $20 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $20 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $21 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $20 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $20 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $21 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $20 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $20 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $20 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $19 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $21 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $20 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $20 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $20 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $20 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $20 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 100¢ $196 5h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 50¢ $100 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 45 history records