Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:42:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x074f…9a0d other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate48%16W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% +$1
other 20% −$5
crypto 6% −$2
sports 5% $0
politics 5% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 1% +$2
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.2% -9.3% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 +0.6% -8.9% 22% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 9 +0.6% -8.9% 22% 0% -9.4%
all 33 -8.4% -17.1% 48% 6% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 6% -10.1%
10% -25.1% 6% -18.7%
15% -32.3% 3% -26.6%
20% -38.9% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses16 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage471d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $32 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $30 $0 -1%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $16 $0 +2%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $56 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $29 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $7 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $115K in June? Dec 14 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 01 $2 $0 -2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 28 $7 $0 +1%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? Jun 27 $3 −$2 -73%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 24 $6 +$2 +31%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 22 $12 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 16–23? May 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $13 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1900 and $2100 on May 16? May 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease? Apr 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 10 $14 $0 +0%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Apr 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 08 $2 +$1 +40%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 30 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Mar 28 $2 $0 -3%
Dogecoin above $0.17 on March 28? Mar 27 $11 $0 +2%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 25 $10 $0 +2%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 14-21? Mar 19 $12 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $10 $0 +3%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 13 $12 $0 -0%
Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $32 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $32 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $29 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $30 14h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 49¢ $12 35h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 49¢ $4 35h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $16 38h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $30 40h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $30 43h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $3 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $26 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $10 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $18 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $2 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $32 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $32 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $20 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $20 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $27 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $27 11d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $29 13d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $29 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 15d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 15d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 16d
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 358d
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 358d
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 358d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? SELL No 98¢ $7 361d
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 361d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 97 history records