Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:37:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
07 0x0751…073a other 187 markets active 1h ago coverage 325d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$338 (+7%) realized +$334 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate54%98W / 83L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$442now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$102
7 days+$187
14 days+$305
30 days+$305
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 40% +$121
other 35% +$111
sports 17% +$58
crypto 5% +$4
world 2% +$1
politics 0% −$4
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 121 -16.2% -24.2% 59% 39% -4.9%
≤30d 151 -11.2% -19.6% 57% 41% -3.1%
≤90d 151 -11.2% -19.6% 57% 41% -3.1%
all 181 -13.9% -22.1% 54% 41% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 41% -3.6%
10% -29.6% 28% -12.8%
15% -36.4% 23% -21.2%
20% -42.6% 18% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

325d coverage
Net worth$442
Realized+$334
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses98 / 83
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions6
Markets (closed)181 / 187
History coverage325d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 181 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 28? No 91¢ 100¢ $108 $119 +$11 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 28? No 97¢ 93¢ $121 $117 −$5 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 28? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $73 $76 +$3 (+3%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 60¢ 54¢ $80 $71 −$9 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 28? No 93¢ 100¢ $46 $50 +$4 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 28? No 87¢ 89¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 38°C on June 28? Jun 28 $8 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 29? Jun 28 $77 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $141 +$13 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 28? Jun 28 $21 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 28? Jun 28 $58 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 28? Jun 28 $80 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 27? Jun 28 $66 −$12 -18%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $44 +$6 +14%
Argentina to score first vs. Jordan? Jun 28 $43 +$7 +17%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $25 +$15 +62%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $9 +$11 +114%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $51 +$9 +17%
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $23 +$4 +16%
England to score first vs. Panama? Jun 27 $25 +$5 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 27? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 27? Jun 27 $104 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 27? Jun 27 $68 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 27? Jun 27 $47 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 27? Jun 27 $16 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 28? Jun 27 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 27? Jun 27 $24 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 27? Jun 27 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 27? Jun 27 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 27? Jun 27 $39 +$6 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 27? Jun 27 $42 +$4 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 27? Jun 27 $35 +$5 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 27? Jun 27 $52 +$3 +5%
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $16 +$3 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 27? Jun 27 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 27? Jun 27 $56 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on June 27? Jun 27 $59 +$1 +2%
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $24 $0 -1%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 27 $6 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 27? Jun 27 $47 +$3 +6%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $30 −$30 -100%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $84 −$3 -4%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $91 +$1 +2%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $30 +$20 +67%
Spain to score first vs. Uruguay? Jun 27 $34 +$16 +48%
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $44 +$5 +11%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $36 +$12 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 28? BUY No 97¢ $121 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 28? BUY No 87¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 28? BUY Yes 97¢ $48 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 28? BUY Yes 97¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 38°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 29? SELL No 96¢ $77 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $155 3h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $24 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 95¢ $43 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 95¢ $9 4h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $62 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $83 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 89¢ $57 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 89¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 89¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 89¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 89¢ $9 6h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 28? BUY No 88¢ $21 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 28? BUY No 91¢ $108 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 28? BUY No 93¢ $47 7h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 38°C on June 28? BUY No 94¢ $8 7h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 60¢ $31 7h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 60¢ $50 7h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 28? BUY No 94¢ $58 8h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 28? BUY No 96¢ $11 9h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 29? BUY No 96¢ $77 9h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 28? BUY No 96¢ $69 9h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $7 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $441.55 · official $441.55 (match) · 582 history records