Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:02:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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07 0x0756…d711 crypto 204 markets active 1h ago coverage 204d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 204d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,454 (-6%) realized −$3,791 · open −$663
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate52%150W / 136L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$373per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1,861now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,620
7 days−$3,453
14 days−$3,767
30 days−$3,767
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$1,293
other 5% −$1,780
tech 2% +$661
politics 1% +$24
world 0% +$15
economics 0% −$1
finance 0% −$24
culture 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 -33.5% -39.9% 19% 12% -36.8%
≤30d 120 -32.2% -38.6% 24% 12% -32.0%
≤90d 120 -32.2% -38.6% 24% 12% -32.0%
all 286 -20.9% -28.4% 52% 12% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.4% 12% -16.7%
10% -35.3% 7% -24.7%
15% -41.5% 4% -32.0%
20% -47.3% 3% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$74 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

204d coverage
Net worth$1,861
Realized−$3,791
Unrealized−$663
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses150 / 136
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)286 / 204
History coverage204d ⚠
Avg bet$373
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 286 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 29¢ 20¢ $1,616 $1,136 −$480 (-30%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 94¢ $385 $389 +$4 (+1%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 90¢ 94¢ $304 $319 +$15 (+5%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 63¢ 5¢ $220 $18 −$202 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 113 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 23 $144 −$140 -97%
Will Fastenal (FAST) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 23 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $103 −$77 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 23 $93 −$88 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $27 −$20 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 23 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 29, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 29, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $31 −$47 -148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 29, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 23 $35 −$36 -104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 23 $60 −$49 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$2 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 29, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 23 $59 −$36 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $80 −$80 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 4, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 29, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 29, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 23 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$45 -880%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Trump say "Santa Claus" in December? Jun 23 $125 −$125 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $30 −$10 -33%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 8, 7PM ET Jun 23 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $35 −$23 -66%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or higher on Nov Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 29, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $0 +$2 +1464%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 29, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 23 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 23 $479 −$462 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $215 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $128 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $170 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $102 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $102 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $268 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $102 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $116 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $112 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $102 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $102 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $128 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $245 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $102 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,861.32 · official $1,861.88 (match) · 3500 history records