Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:00:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x0757…2720 world 99 markets active 3h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate37%36W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$7
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$16
other 24% +$3
politics 16% −$2
sports 8% −$14
finance 3% −$2
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.7% -8.9% 38% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 28 -1.2% -10.6% 32% 4% -8.8%
≤90d 77 -0.8% -10.2% 35% 1% -9.2%
all 98 -3.6% -12.8% 37% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 5% -9.5%
10% -21.1% 3% -18.2%
15% -28.7% 3% -26.1%
20% -35.7% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses36 / 62
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)98 / 99
History coverage531d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 24 $41 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $51 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $40 $0 -1%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $11 +$1 +6%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 21 $74 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $46 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $67 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $112 +$7 +6%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $34 −$1 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $19 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $33 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $34 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $86 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $156 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $65 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $85 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $132 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $13 $0 -3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $42 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $23 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $18 +$10 +57%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $29 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $63 −$2 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $27 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $64 −$1 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $32 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $88 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $35 +$1 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 20 $32 $0 -0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $32 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 18 $16 $0 +2%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $34 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $32 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 14 $28 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $65 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $28 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $24 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $63 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $3 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $71 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $27 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $42 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $41 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $41 2h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $40 6h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $43 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $5 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $34 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $40 26h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $12 46h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $11 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $23 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $23 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $39 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $8 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $31 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $43 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $43 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $39 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $4 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $43 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $43 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.02 · official $2.56 (match) · 375 history records