Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:25:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x0758…3fa6 crypto 203 markets active 0h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,441 (-16%) realized −$1,441 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate68%137W / 65L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$430
7 days−$1,373
14 days−$1,527
30 days−$1,526
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 36% −$212
sports 27% −$1,099
crypto 22% −$114
other 15% −$102
economics 0% −$9
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -11.4% -19.8% 32% 10% -26.0%
≤30d 200 -7.6% -16.4% 68% 26% -24.6%
≤90d 202 -8.0% -16.8% 68% 26% -24.6%
all 202 -8.0% -16.8% 68% 26% -24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 26% -24.6%
10% -24.7% 10% -31.8%
15% -32.0% 4% -38.4%
20% -38.7% 3% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$37 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$1,441
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses137 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)202 / 203
History coverage57d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 202 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Over 95¢ 94¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$4 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $402 +$37 +9%
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $32 −$31 -98%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 +$15 +29%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $1,106 +$112 +10%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $50 +$4 +7%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $50 +$4 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $44 +$6 +12%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $644 +$331 +51%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,107 −$1,107 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,105 +$17 +2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1,027 +$73 +7%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? Jun 17 $727 −$727 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $39 −$30 -77%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $599 +$67 +11%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $104 +$9 +8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 19? Jun 13 $7 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 13 $13 $0 -1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $9 $0 -1%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? Jun 13 $10 $0 -2%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $10 $0 -1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $10 $0 -1%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $9 $0 -2%
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Jun 13 $9 $0 -3%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 $0 -2%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $7 $0 -3%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $8 $0 -2%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $8 $0 -5%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $8 $0 -2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $9 $0 -4%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $9 $0 -6%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $9 $0 -2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $9 $0 -5%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $9 $0 -3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $9 $0 -1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $10 $0 -0%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $9 $0 -0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $8 +$2 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $9 $0 +3%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $70 −$70 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$3 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $50 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $50 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $201 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $202 30m
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 19? SELL Down 0¢ $1 34m
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 10¢ $32 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $50 6h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $65 12h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $48 13h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 13h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 13h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $50 22h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $54 23h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $50 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $44 29h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 97¢ $20 30h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 97¢ $9 30h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 97¢ $1 30h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 97¢ $435 30h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 88¢ $7 34h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 88¢ $18 34h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 88¢ $97 34h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 88¢ $97 34h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 88¢ $97 34h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 88¢ $97 34h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 88¢ $22 35h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 92¢ $48 35h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 92¢ $101 35h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 92¢ $9 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.09 · official $50.09 (match) · 539 history records