Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:50:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x0760…01d6 crypto 230 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$49 (+1%) realized +$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate56%128W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days−$369
14 days−$369
30 days−$369
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$2
other 4% −$14
tech 2% +$77
culture 2% −$11
sports 0% −$5
world 0% +$2
finance 0% +$2
politics 0% $0
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -57.3% -61.4% 21% 20% -34.3%
≤30d 84 -57.3% -61.4% 21% 20% -34.3%
≤90d 84 -57.3% -61.4% 21% 20% -34.3%
all 230 -7.1% -16.0% 56% 47% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 47% -8.2%
10% -24.0% 42% -17.0%
15% -31.4% 33% -25.0%
20% -38.1% 26% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses128 / 102
Open positions0
Markets (closed)230 / 230
History coverage135d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 230 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $92 +$48 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$17 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$32 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$10 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$43 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$10 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$6 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$4 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $21 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $12 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $103 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $35 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $12 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 524 history records