Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:51:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
07 0x0765…7bc4 world 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+2%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$262per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$30
14 days+$30
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 85% +$30
other 15% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +8.4% -2.0% 50% 25% -7.0%
≤30d 7 +4.7% -5.2% 29% 14% -8.1%
≤90d 7 +4.7% -5.2% 29% 14% -8.1%
all 7 +4.7% -5.2% 29% 14% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 14% -8.1%
10% -14.3% 14% -16.9%
15% -22.6% 0% -24.9%
20% -30.2% 0% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$0 · ×57.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×38.63 per $1 lost it wins $38.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage14d
Avg bet$262
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 29 $445 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? Jun 29 $446 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? Jun 26 $91 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? Jun 26 $90 +$30 +33%
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? Jun 16 $275 $0 +0%
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 Jun 16 $244 −$1 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? Jun 15 $243 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records