Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:53:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x0767…ce17 other 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$99 (-18%) realized −$92 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$226now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$28
sports 35% −$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -3.2% -12.4% 43% 43% -29.1%
≤30d 7 -3.2% -12.4% 43% 43% -29.1%
≤90d 7 -3.2% -12.4% 43% 43% -29.1%
all 7 -3.2% -12.4% 43% 43% -29.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 43% -29.1%
10% -20.8% 43% -35.9%
15% -28.5% 43% -42.1%
20% -35.5% 29% -47.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$45 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$226
Realized−$92
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)7 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Yes 38¢ 36¢ $105 $101 −$4 (-4%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Portugal 43¢ 42¢ $85 $84 −$1 (-1%)
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Yes 40¢ 38¢ $43 $40 −$3 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Amine Gouiri: 1+ goals Jun 23 $20 +$33 +162%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $86 +$35 +41%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $26 +$44 +170%
Mousa Ta'mari: 1+ goals Jun 23 $18 −$18 -98%
Fares Chaïbi: 1+ goals Jun 23 $26 −$25 -98%
Riyad Mahrez: 1+ goals Jun 23 $36 −$35 -98%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 23 $107 −$103 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $44 25m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 43¢ $86 26m
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 38¢ $107 27m
Amine Gouiri: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $53 51m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $115 57m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 39¢ $35 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 40¢ $34 2h
Mousa Ta'mari: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $18 3h
Amine Gouiri: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $20 3h
Fares Chaïbi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $26 3h
Riyad Mahrez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $36 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 64¢ $6 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 3h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $76 3h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 5h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 7h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $225.55 · official $225.55 (match) · 18 history records