Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:29:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x0767…77b4 crypto 24 markets active 15h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$6 (+8%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate38%9W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-46.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -40.7% -46.3% 38% 25% -14.7%
≤30d 24 -40.7% -46.3% 38% 25% -14.7%
≤90d 24 -40.7% -46.3% 38% 25% -14.7%
all 24 -40.7% -46.3% 38% 25% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.3% 25% -14.7%
10% -51.4% 21% -22.8%
15% -56.1% 21% -30.3%
20% -60.4% 8% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses9 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage6d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$8 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$15 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.89 · official $35.89 (match) · 57 history records