Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:08:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

07 0x0769…3690 sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$19,887 (-18%) realized −$19,887 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip

Net edge-15%after slip

Net WR48%break-even

Win rate61%14W / 9L

Whale WR50%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$4,792per market

Trades / day19.4pace

Fees−$766est.

Kalshi-fit65%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +48%

net ROI/market (all)+1.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	23	+12.6%	+1.9%	61%	48%	-27.1%
≤30d	23	+12.6%	+1.9%	61%	48%	-27.1%
≤90d	23	+12.6%	+1.9%	61%	48%	-27.1%
all	23	+12.6%	+1.9%	61%	48%	-27.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover19.4 tr/day

realistic slip~14%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+1.9%	48%	-27.1%
10% ← realistic here	-7.8%	43%	-34.1%
15%	-16.7%	30%	-40.4%
20%	-24.9%	26%	-46.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

21% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +13% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 50% (≥$6,619) neutral

Persistence

early +2% → late +23% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1,417 vs −$4,580 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.48 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$19,887

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)61%

Wins / losses14 / 9

Whale WR (big bets)50%

Est. fees paid−$766

Open positions0

Markets (closed)23 / 23

History coverage6d

Avg bet$4,792

Trades / day19.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 23 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$775	+$264	+34%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Jun 17	$4,528	−$3,757	-83%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$3,828	+$703	+18%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5	Jun 16	$93	−$90	-98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5	Jun 16	$3,044	+$781	+26%
Norway leading at halftime?	Jun 16	$250	+$249	+100%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime?	Jun 16	$1,501	+$43	+3%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 16	$510	−$500	-98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$6,619	−$3,285	-50%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Jun 16	$510	+$1,013	+198%
Egypt leading at halftime?	Jun 15	$5,310	+$312	+6%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$514	+$1,109	+216%
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	Jun 15	$2,013	−$747	-37%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$2,048	−$2,048	-100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	Jun 15	$5,098	−$4,482	-88%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 14	$8,632	+$2,808	+32%
Spread: Germany (-2.5)	Jun 14	$8,247	+$423	+5%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$5,083	+$3,153	+62%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$8,456	−$3,392	-40%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$24,699	−$22,917	-93%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$13,474	+$5,336	+40%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$5	+$8	+165%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	Jun 11	$4,974	+$3,641	+73%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	74¢	$775	1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	SELL Portugal	13¢	$771	1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY Portugal	71¢	$4,528	2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$4,531	17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	84¢	$3,828	18h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5	SELL Over	0¢	$2	20h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	100¢	$3,825	20h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	79¢	$3,044	20h
Norway leading at halftime?	SELL Yes	100¢	$499	21h
Norway leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	50¢	$250	21h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5	BUY Over	5¢	$93	22h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,545	24h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	97¢	$1,501	24h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	34¢	$510	24h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	23¢	$3,334	41h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	43¢	$6,619	41h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,523	43h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	33¢	$510	45h
Egypt leading at halftime?	SELL Yes	94¢	$200	2d
Egypt leading at halftime?	SELL Yes	94¢	$4,730	2d
Egypt leading at halftime?	SELL Yes	94¢	$200	2d
Egypt leading at halftime?	SELL Yes	94¢	$10	2d
Egypt leading at halftime?	SELL Yes	94¢	$10	2d
Egypt leading at halftime?	SELL Yes	94¢	$200	2d
Egypt leading at halftime?	SELL Yes	94¢	$46	2d
Egypt leading at halftime?	SELL Yes	94¢	$200	2d
Egypt leading at halftime?	SELL Yes	94¢	$20	2d
Egypt leading at halftime?	SELL Yes	94¢	$5	2d
Egypt leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	88¢	$5,310	2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	SELL Yes	33¢	$1,623	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 126 history records