Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:29:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
07 0x076b…e4b1 sports 52 markets active 1d ago coverage 219d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,530 (+5%) realized +$3,510 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate50%25W / 25L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$1,244per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$150est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$625now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$426
7 days−$368
14 days−$468
30 days+$2,852
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$61
sports 24% +$3,813
other 19% −$493
crypto 3% +$48
tech 3% +$10
economics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -49.9% -54.7% 50% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 18 +13.5% +2.6% 61% 22% -5.1%
≤90d 21 +24.2% +12.4% 67% 33% -4.8%
all 50 -4.5% -13.6% 50% 36% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 36% -4.6%
10% -21.9% 34% -13.7%
15% -29.4% 28% -22.1%
20% -36.3% 22% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -27% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$232 vs −$95 · ×2.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.44 per $1 lost it wins $2.44
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

219d coverage
Net worth$625
Realized+$3,510
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses25 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$150
Open positions2
Markets (closed)50 / 52
History coverage219d
Avg bet$1,244
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $585 $602 +$18 (+3%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 71¢ 80¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $426 −$426 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $28,440 +$58 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $839 −$26 -3%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,788 +$1 +0%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,990 +$10 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 14 $1 $0 -9%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $9,861 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $166 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $4,439 +$3 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $83 −$11 -13%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $980 −$137 -14%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4,000 +$5 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,936 +$64 +3%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $30 −$8 -26%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 28 $71 +$27 +39%
Knicks vs. Hawks May 28 $720 +$780 +108%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 28 $675 +$825 +122%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 28 $1,260 +$1,688 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Apr 23 $49 +$49 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Apr 23 $67 +$32 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Apr 23 $91 +$107 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Mar 19 $216 −$61 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Mar 19 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Mar 19 $370 +$93 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Mar 19 $335 +$360 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Mar 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Mar 19 $141 −$139 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Mar 19 $86 −$85 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Mar 18 $120 −$118 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Mar 18 $246 +$150 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Mar 18 $221 −$147 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Mar 18 $74 −$74 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Mar 18 $207 +$93 +45%
Knicks vs. Pistons Mar 18 $480 +$520 +108%
Lakers vs. Nets Feb 03 $125 −$125 -100%
Knicks vs. Raptors Feb 03 $138 +$162 +117%
Lakers vs. Trail Blazers Jan 18 $126 −$126 -100%
Knicks vs. Pistons Jan 05 $104 −$104 -100%
Celtics vs. Kings Jan 05 $320 +$80 +25%
Rockets vs. Nets Jan 02 $280 +$70 +25%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Jan 02 $145 +$30 +20%
Bulls vs. Cavaliers Dec 29 $174 +$426 +245%
Rockets vs. Nuggets Dec 15 $245 −$245 -100%
Bucks vs. Nets Dec 15 $138 +$162 +117%
Nuggets vs. Kings Dec 11 $94 −$94 -100%
Heat vs. Magic Dec 08 $47 −$47 -100%
Pelicans vs. Nets Dec 06 $46 −$46 -100%
Knicks vs. Celtics Dec 02 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 26 $412 −$128 -31%
USDT depeg in 2025? Nov 26 $1 $0 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $426 27h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $36 27h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 82¢ $813 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $813 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $81 9d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $15 10d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $20 10d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $113 10d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $7 10d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $19 10d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $56 10d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $113 10d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $109 10d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $110 10d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $57 10d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $90 10d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $5 10d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $6 10d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $26 10d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $1 10d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $11 10d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $1 10d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $5 10d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $48 10d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $96 10d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $2 10d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $5 10d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $5 10d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $34 10d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $5 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $624.70 · official $624.70 (match) · 609 history records