Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:47:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x076b…57af other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 92d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,543 (-3%) realized −$3,548 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate76%29W / 9L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,631per market
Trades / day37.1pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$771
7 days−$733
14 days−$655
30 days−$3,366
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 82% +$2,476
other 15% −$5,326
sports 4% +$847
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +11.2% +0.6% 91% 45% -14.1%
≤30d 30 -2.1% -11.5% 80% 23% -11.6%
≤90d 38 +1.2% -8.4% 76% 29% -10.3%
all 38 +1.2% -8.4% 76% 29% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.4% 29% -10.3%
10% -17.2% 16% -18.9%
15% ← realistic here -25.2% 8% -26.7%
20% -32.5% 5% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
50.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$147 vs −$698 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized−$3,548
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses29 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage93d ⚠
Avg bet$2,631
Trades / day37.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $31 +$6 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 29 $1,971 +$633 +32%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $1,031 +$639 +62%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $5,150 −$2,408 -47%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $468 +$110 +24%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $1,709 +$218 +13%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $2,985 +$17 +1%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $440 +$19 +4%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $418 +$17 +4%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $105 +$6 +6%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 27 $60 +$10 +17%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $56 +$4 +7%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $146 +$7 +5%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $132 +$8 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $115 +$20 +17%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 19 $119 −$2 -2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $5 $0 -5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $80 +$40 +49%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $155 +$5 +3%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $133 +$2 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $14 $0 +1%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $8 −$2 -28%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $12 $0 +1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $45 +$3 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $17 $0 +2%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $11 $0 +2%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $15 −$14 -91%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3,830 −$3,818 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $81,169 +$1,117 +1%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 20 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $484 +$666 +138%
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 10 $2,744 +$493 +18%
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 10 $1,087 +$237 +22%
Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -60%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in first place in the first round Apr 06 $48 −$10 -20%
Will Club Universitario de Deportes win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $2 +$1 +22%
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 04 $275 −$28 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 61¢ $1,031 2h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1,067 2h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 2h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 2h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Paraguay 81¢ $244 2h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 3h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 3h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 3h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 3h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 3h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $59 3h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 3h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 3h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 3h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 3h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $25 3h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 3h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $43 3h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Paraguay 74¢ $370 3h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 3h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $6 3h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $55 3h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $413 3h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 3h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 4h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Paraguay 75¢ $1,356 4h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 4h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.65 · official $79.72 (match) · 3500 history records