Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:54:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x076c…4e7b world 83 markets active 29d ago coverage 30d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 29d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (113 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$34,385 (-21%) realized −$34,439 · open +$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate14%44W / 272L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,983per market
Trades / day112.6pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$6,113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 30d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 80% +$150
finance 9% −$97
other 6% −$1,186
politics 5% +$133
economics 1% −$570
culture 0% +$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (113 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-34.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 239 -32.1% -38.6% 8% 7% -78.3%
≤30d 264 -26.8% -33.7% 12% 7% -11.5%
≤90d 316 -27.3% -34.2% 14% 6% -11.8%
all 316 -27.3% -34.2% 14% 6% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover112.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.2% 6% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -40.5% 6% -20.3%
15% -46.2% 5% -28.0%
20% -51.5% 5% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -57% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
14.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$26 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$6,113
Realized−$34,439
Unrealized+$54
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses44 / 272
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Open positions76
Markets (closed)316 / 83
History coverage30d ⚠
Avg bet$1,983
Trades / day112.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 76 History 316 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 77¢ 86¢ $1,806 $2,014 +$207 (+11%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 47¢ 99¢ $598 $1,250 +$652 (+109%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $698 $648 −$50 (-7%)
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $271 $283 +$13 (+5%)
Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31? No 91¢ 96¢ $227 $239 +$12 (+5%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 51¢ 52¢ $123 $127 +$4 (+3%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 48¢ 42¢ $120 $106 −$14 (-11%)
Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition? No 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 48¢ 42¢ $103 $90 −$13 (-12%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Yes 23¢ 14¢ $115 $72 −$42 (-37%)
Will Maxx Crosby play for Philadelphia Eagles next? No 98¢ 96¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 26¢ 21¢ $66 $54 −$12 (-19%)
Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $5M before 2027? No 88¢ 96¢ $41 $45 +$4 (+9%)
Will Maxx Crosby play for Las Vegas Raiders next? No 20¢ 20¢ $38 $39 +$1 (+3%)
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? No 86¢ 97¢ $33 $38 +$5 (+14%)
Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election? Yes 68¢ 83¢ $31 $37 +$7 (+22%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 11¢ 14¢ $28 $35 +$7 (+25%)
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? Yes 92¢ 5¢ $550 $31 −$519 (-94%)
Will Jia Yueting enter mainland China by June 30? No 88¢ 100¢ $26 $30 +$4 (+13%)
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? Yes 24¢ 13¢ $53 $28 −$24 (-46%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 20¢ $30 $25 −$4 (-15%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 59¢ 100¢ $14 $24 +$10 (+69%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 19¢ 52¢ $9 $24 +$15 (+176%)
California voter ID referendum passes? Yes 39¢ 49¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+26%)
Nechirvan Barzani out as Kurdistan Regional Government President? No 92¢ 97¢ $10 $10 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 245 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? Jun 29 $225 +$275 +122%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 29 $16 −$7 -45%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 29 $13 −$14 -106%
Will Ha Phan advance from the CA-17 primary? Jun 29 $2 $0 +9%
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 29 $2 $0 +22%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -126%
Will TISZA win 42-46% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Trump cut off trade with Spain? Jun 29 $1 −$18 -2599%
Will Trump say "Israel" 3+ times during Monday press conference? Jun 29 $0 −$4 -8608%
Will Tisza win 110–119 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in thi Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur b Jun 29 $3 −$102 -3650%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $106 on May 1? Jun 29 $38 −$38 -98%
Will "Frankenstein" win exactly 2 awards at the Oscars? Jun 29 $1 −$4 -619%
Will "Hoppers" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 26m and 29m? Jun 29 $5 −$51 -1032%
Will Trump say "Epic Fury" during events with Japanese PM? Jun 29 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Jun 29 $35 −$63 -181%
Will "Epstein" be said at the Oscars? Jun 29 $28 −$39 -140%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 30-31°F on March 16 Jun 29 $1 −$1 -46%
Will Tisza win 80–89 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 20? Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026? Jun 29 $161 −$161 -100%
Will Kyler Murray play for Minnesota Vikings in 2026-27? Jun 29 $3 −$26 -1012%
James Comey mugshot released by May 5? Jun 29 $2 −$5 -231%
Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" during Taoiseach events? Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Juliana Stratton win the Illinois Democratic Senate Primary by be Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Andrew Tate post 130-159 posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Jun 29 $0 −$34 -68412%
Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) win the Bangladesh parliam Jun 29 $2 −$1 -64%
Nothing Ever Happens: Interest Rates Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jordan strike Iran by March 31? Jun 29 $1 −$4 -660%
Will Norway join the Board of Peace? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jurassic World Rebirth win Best Visual Effects at the 98th Academ Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Russia enter Khatnie by March 31, 2026? Jun 29 $1 +$3 +289%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Jun 29 $220 −$231 -105%
Will "White House" be said at the Oscars? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from March 10 to Mar Jun 29 $3 −$4 -130%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on March 16? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Ma Jun 29 $10 −$18 -176%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 16? Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and Jun 29 $0 $0 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Jun 29 $1 −$54 -4183%
Will Trump say "Toyota" during events with Japanese PM? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Dems or GOP larger turnout in Texas Senate Primary? Jun 29 $0 −$27 -77179%
Will Pacto Histórico win 24-26 seats in the Colombian Senate in the 20 Jun 29 $0 −$5 -3247%
Will The Singers win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy A Jun 29 $41 −$38 -94%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 29 $90 −$150 -167%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Jun 29 $180 −$149 -83%
Will Blue Moon win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Iran strike Georgia by March 31? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May? Jun 29 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $66 36d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $23 36d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $95 36d
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 41d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $22 41d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? BUY No 94¢ $188 46d
Will Trump visit China by May 15? BUY No 6¢ $30 51d
Will Trump visit China by May 15? BUY No 6¢ $12 51d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 51d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 51d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 51d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 51d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 51d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 51d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 51d
Israel closes its airspace by May 8? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 51d
Israel closes its airspace by May 8? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 51d
Israel closes its airspace by May 8? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 51d
Israel closes its airspace by May 8? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 51d
Israel closes its airspace by May 8? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 51d
Israel closes its airspace by May 8? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 51d
Israel closes its airspace by May 8? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 51d
Israel closes its airspace by May 8? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 51d
Israel closes its airspace by May 8? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 51d
Israel closes its airspace by May 8? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 51d
Israel closes its airspace by May 8? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 51d
Israel closes its airspace by May 8? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 51d
Israel closes its airspace by May 8? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 51d
Israel closes its airspace by May 8? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,112.72 · official $6,111.13 (match) · 3500 history records