Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:49:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x076f…bb10 other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 269d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$20 (-2%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate23%10W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$2
other 33% −$17
sports 7% −$10
politics 6% +$5
finance 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 43% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 13 +5.2% -4.8% 46% 8% -9.2%
≤90d 14 +4.9% -5.1% 50% 7% -9.2%
all 44 -3.0% -12.3% 23% 5% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 5% -11.1%
10% -20.7% 2% -19.6%
15% -28.3% 2% -27.3%
20% -35.4% 2% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

269d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses10 / 34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage269d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 91¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $4 $0 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $37 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $52 −$2 -4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $21 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $102 +$3 +2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $37 +$1 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $103 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $40 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2 +$1 +68%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $47 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $47 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $47 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $46 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $9 $0 +1%
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? Feb 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the U.S. take over Gaza in 2025? Jan 31 $5 $0 +2%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Jan 31 $49 −$9 -18%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Nov 28 $7 $0 -4%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 24 $21 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 24 $10 $0 +0%
Clippers vs. Hornets Nov 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $55 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 22 $44 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 21 $24 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Nov 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 20 $17 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $22 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $37 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $20 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 19 $28 +$5 +18%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $27 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 23 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $22 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $25 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 8h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $33 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $37 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $34 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $13 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $50 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 25¢ $21 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 25¢ $10 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 25¢ $12 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 88¢ $55 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $53 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $39 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $37 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $25 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $3 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $22 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $3 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $38 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $41 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $17 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $14 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $5 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $8 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $29 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.48 · official $25.48 (match) · 226 history records