Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:02:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x0770…c32c world 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 252d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$2 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate34%11W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$1
politics 20% $0
other 15% −$1
finance 8% $0
economics 6% $0
sports 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.2% -9.4% 30% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 12 +0.1% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 12 +0.1% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.2%
all 32 -2.2% -11.5% 34% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 3% -9.4%
10% -20.0% 3% -18.1%
15% -27.7% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses11 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage252d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 96¢ 94¢ $44 $43 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $44 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $2 $0 -5%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $44 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $43 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $44 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $8 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $30 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $17 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $42 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $31 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $59 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jan 31 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 05 $4 +$1 +29%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 18 $18 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 17 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will Larry Ellison be richest person on October 31? Oct 14 $20 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 11 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 10 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 09 $21 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Kazakhstan? Oct 08 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $44 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $44 46h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $44 47h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $44 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $44 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $44 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $43 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $44 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $44 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $12 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $12 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $3 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $13 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $2 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $18 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 43¢ $17 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $17 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 17¢ $13 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 16¢ $12 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $30 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $13 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $42 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $1 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $4 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $5 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $22 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.42 · official $43.42 (match) · 106 history records