Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:21:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

07
0x0770…184b
other · 181 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$104 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$285 · open +$212
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,530
Realized−$285
Unrealized+$212
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses94 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions19
Markets (closed)162 / 181
History coverage88d
Avg bet$252
Trades / day37.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%
Chart Positions 19 History 162 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days−$331
14 days−$374
30 days−$736
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No 40¢ 48¢ $528 $634 +$106 (+20%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 87¢ 87¢ $500 $501 +$1 (+0%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 83¢ 92¢ $329 $365 +$37 (+11%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 56¢ 56¢ $312 $314 +$2 (+1%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? No 80¢ 99¢ $206 $256 +$50 (+24%)
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 91¢ 88¢ $226 $220 −$6 (-3%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $190 $186 −$4 (-2%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No 42¢ 56¢ $126 $166 +$41 (+33%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 71¢ 45¢ $214 $135 −$79 (-37%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 81¢ 100¢ $108 $134 +$25 (+23%)
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? No 24¢ 20¢ $144 $120 −$24 (-16%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? No 85¢ 98¢ $85 $98 +$13 (+15%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 81¢ 96¢ $81 $96 +$15 (+19%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 79¢ 82¢ $67 $70 +$3 (+4%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 28¢ 32¢ $56 $65 +$9 (+16%)
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? OpenAI 17¢ 24¢ $43 $60 +$17 (+40%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 74¢ 75¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 49¢ 50¢ $49 $50 +$0 (+1%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? No 3¢ 6¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+91%)
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 21m? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $127 −$57 -45%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $329 +$90 +28%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest Jun 11 $21 −$17 -82%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +10%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? Jun 09 $84 +$7 +9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $276 +$28 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $126 +$11 +9%
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 27m? Jun 08 $103 −$101 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $70 −$68 -97%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 07 $266 −$100 -38%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $81 −$66 -82%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $86 −$29 -34%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $376 −$89 -24%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 07 $51 +$9 +17%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $645 +$50 +8%
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? Jun 06 $268 −$34 -13%
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 21m? Jun 06 $30 −$29 -98%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 05 $78 −$78 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? Jun 05 $35 −$35 -100%
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Jun 05 $171 −$1 -1%
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $23 −$2 -7%
US strike on Colombia by December 31? Jun 04 $159 +$2 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $205 +$2 +1%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 02 $93 −$16 -17%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $405 +$43 +10%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $622 +$55 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 01 $377 +$50 +13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 01 $185 −$78 -42%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $207 +$37 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $456 +$62 +14%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $154 +$14 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $204 −$35 -17%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $263 +$32 +12%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $285 +$7 +3%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 30 $41 +$15 +37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $1,036 +$135 +13%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $1,676 −$645 -38%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 28 $569 +$36 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 28 $130 +$20 +15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 27 $251 +$23 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 27 $171 +$15 +9%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 27 $1,165 +$50 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $44 −$5 -12%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $240 +$1 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? May 25 $131 −$2 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $77 −$31 -40%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 25 $391 +$6 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $142 +$10 +7%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? May 21 $25 −$20 -80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 55% −$418
other 39% +$297
finance 3% +$129
politics 3% +$24
culture 0% −$130
tech 0% +$22
economics 0% $0
sports 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $50 28m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $49 42m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 100¢ $85 44m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $47 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $14 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $142 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $42 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $85 30h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $81 31h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL No 47¢ $10 31h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL No 47¢ $60 32h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? SELL Yes 61¢ $92 2d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest SELL Yes 5¢ $4 2d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? SELL Yes 35¢ $11 2d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $92 3d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest BUY Yes 26¢ $21 3d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 4d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 4d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 4d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 4d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 4d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 4d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 4d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 4d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 4d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 4d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 4d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 4d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 4d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -27.1% -34.1% 47% 20% -20.8%
≤30d 58 -13.3% -21.6% 55% 19% -13.6%
≤90d 162 -4.1% -13.2% 58% 20% -10.2%
all 162 -4.1% -13.2% 58% 20% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover37.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 20% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 9% -18.8%
15% -29.1% 5% -26.6%
20% -36.0% 3% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,530.12 · official $3,530.18 (match) · 3500 history records