Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:00:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
07 0x0771…cd63 crypto 241 markets active 15h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$256 (+3%) realized +$71 · open +$185
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate72%172W / 67L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$6,964now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 83% +$184
crypto 14% +$50
sports 3% +$11
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +3.0% -6.8% 75% 62% -1.3%
≤30d 12 -22.3% -29.7% 58% 42% -16.8%
≤90d 133 +11.5% +0.8% 71% 51% -6.4%
all 239 +10.3% -0.2% 72% 52% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.2% 52% -5.6%
10% -9.8% 37% -14.6%
15% -18.5% 21% -22.9%
20% -26.5% 16% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$6,964
Realized+$71
Unrealized+$185
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses172 / 67
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)239 / 241
History coverage109d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 239 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $6,757 $6,942 +$185 (+3%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No 84¢ 86¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $4 +$2 +50%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3 $0 +9%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 +$1 +43%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1 $0 +30%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +13%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +46%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 05 $1 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 20 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 20 $13 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Apr 20 $7 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 18 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 18 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 18 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 18 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 18 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 18 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 17 $3 −$2 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 17 $3 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 17 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 17 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 15 $9 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 15 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 15 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 11 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Apr 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 11 $4 −$4 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 11 $5 −$4 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 11 $2 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 11 $2 $0 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $4 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $3 34h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $1 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 6d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 7d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 7d
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 9d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? BUY No 85¢ $3 13d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $4 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? BUY No 85¢ $2 24d
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? BUY No 85¢ $3 27d
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? BUY No 84¢ $4 31d
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? BUY No 84¢ $3 36d
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? BUY No 82¢ $3 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 45d
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? BUY No 84¢ $4 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $1 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,964.16 · official $6,964.16 (match) · 939 history records