Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:58:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x0773…13c9 crypto 1493 markets active 2d ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$15 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate56%796W / 616L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day18.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$308now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$45
14 days−$2
30 days+$146
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$5
finance 9% +$310
world 5% −$191
economics 5% +$119
other 3% −$72
sports 1% +$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 395 -4.2% -13.3% 58% 57% -12.3%
≤30d 1354 +0.5% -9.1% 57% 56% -7.9%
≤90d 1407 -0.2% -9.7% 56% 54% -10.6%
all 1412 -0.2% -9.7% 56% 54% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 54% -8.0%
10% -18.3% 51% -16.8%
15% -26.2% 47% -24.9%
20% -33.4% 40% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$308
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses796 / 616
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1412 / 1493
History coverage102d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day18.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 1412 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $80 $76 −$4 (-5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $40 $48 +$8 (+21%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $32 $43 +$11 (+34%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $35 $31 −$4 (-12%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-21%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 492 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 41h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $26 41h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $36 41h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $29 41h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $33 41h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $41 41h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 41h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $82 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $308.49 · official $308.49 (match) · 2833 history records