Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:34:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

07
0x0775…33d3
world · 62 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$8 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$8 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$38
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses21 / 38
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)59 / 62
History coverage518d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 3 History 59 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $5 −$1 -17%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $19 $0 +2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $36 −$1 -3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 07 $2 $0 -4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $41 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $75 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 02 $88 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $193 −$4 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $37 +$4 +10%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $37 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $74 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 30 $36 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 27 $69 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $16 −$2 -13%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $48 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $43 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 20 $43 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $40 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 18 $14 +$3 +21%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 11 $39 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 10 $4 +$2 +36%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $139 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $42 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $77 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 25 $40 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $97 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $38 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $24 −$2 -7%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $38 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $38 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 13 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 12 $150 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $46 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $43 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 08 $78 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 06 $58 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 04 $5 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $39 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 31 $2 $0 +10%
Will Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 National League Championship Seri Mar 31 $43 $0 +0%
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? Mar 30 $86 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 28 $43 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 42% +$1
other 29% −$9
politics 19% $0
sports 7% $0
economics 3% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $37 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 5¢ $4 4h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $5 6h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $18 7h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $18 10h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $19 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 45¢ $19 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $16 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $19 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $4 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $33 3d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 6d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 7d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $41 7d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $41 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $42 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $42 7d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $13 10d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $5 10d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $19 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 40¢ $34 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $29 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $0 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $38 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $36 11d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -4.4% -13.5% 40% 0% -11.4%
≤30d 23 -0.2% -9.7% 30% 4% -9.6%
≤90d 52 +1.1% -8.5% 33% 6% -9.6%
all 59 -0.6% -10.1% 36% 5% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 5% -9.8%
10% -18.7% 3% -18.4%
15% -26.5% 2% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.65 · official $36.79 (match) · 243 history records