Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:40:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
07 0x0777…4b7f world 152 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
Total PnL +$923 (+25%) realized +$947 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%13W / 65L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1,782now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$155
7 days−$1,046
14 days+$2
30 days+$266
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$568
other 28% −$107
sports 10% −$73
politics 10% +$729
tech 5% −$135
crypto 3% −$34
economics 3% +$51
finance 2% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -62.3% -65.9% 7% 7% -69.9%
≤30d 74 -6.6% -15.5% 15% 15% +4.0%
≤90d 78 +14.2% +3.3% 17% 17% +36.0%
all 78 +14.2% +3.3% 17% 17% +36.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.3% 17% +36.0%
10% -6.6% 17% +22.9%
15% -15.6% 17% +11.1%
20% -23.9% 17% +0.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +50% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +90% → late -61% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$189 vs −$23 · ×8.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$1,782
Realized+$947
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses13 / 65
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions74
Markets (closed)78 / 152
History coverage50d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 74 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 22¢ $39 $155 +$116 (+300%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 16¢ 78¢ $26 $124 +$98 (+378%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 14¢ 84¢ $20 $118 +$98 (+502%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Yes 14¢ 76¢ $21 $116 +$95 (+443%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 25¢ 80¢ $28 $90 +$62 (+222%)
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? No 20¢ 81¢ $18 $72 +$54 (+296%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Yes 21¢ 72¢ $18 $59 +$42 (+237%)
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 10¢ 18¢ $27 $50 +$22 (+83%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 12¢ 26¢ $21 $47 +$26 (+121%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 34¢ $22 $43 +$21 (+97%)
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 16¢ $21 $42 +$20 (+94%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 20¢ $20 $40 +$21 (+105%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Yes 18¢ 34¢ $21 $40 +$18 (+86%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Yes 12¢ 22¢ $21 $39 +$18 (+83%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 9¢ 10¢ $37 $39 +$2 (+6%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $29 $39 +$9 (+32%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 16¢ 29¢ $20 $36 +$16 (+81%)
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $30 $32 +$1 (+4%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $29 $31 +$2 (+6%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Yes 20¢ 34¢ $18 $31 +$12 (+69%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 19¢ 28¢ $20 $29 +$10 (+50%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 25¢ 23¢ $30 $27 −$2 (-8%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? No 11¢ 12¢ $24 $26 +$2 (+9%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $21 $25 +$4 (+18%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $18 +$83 +456%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 13 $18 +$73 +399%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $22 +$77 +353%
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Kolkata Knight Riders Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 12 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? Jun 12 $42 −$42 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $34 −$34 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Kim Tae-heum win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial e Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standing Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 12 $35 −$35 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $4 54m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $4 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $8 1h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $23 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $4 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 21¢ $5 3h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 22¢ $22 14h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 20¢ $2 33h
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $91 40h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $14 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 2d
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 2d
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 2d
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 3d
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 3d
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 26¢ $22 3d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $22 3d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $18 3d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 3d
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? BUY Yes 23¢ $6 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 3d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 22¢ $10 3d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 21¢ $6 3d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 21¢ $6 3d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $22 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 3d
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,782.22 · official $1,783.90 (match) · 434 history records