Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:22:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
07 0x0778…2219 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$116 (+10%) realized +$116 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% +$149
sports 5% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -10.8% -19.3% 50% 50% +0.1%
≤30d 6 -10.8% -19.3% 50% 50% +0.1%
≤90d 6 -10.8% -19.3% 50% 50% +0.1%
all 6 -10.8% -19.3% 50% 50% +0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 50% +0.1%
10% -27.0% 33% -9.5%
15% -34.1% 33% -18.2%
20% -40.6% 33% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$13 · ×3.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.93 per $1 lost it wins $3.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized+$116
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage4d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $67 $68 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $903 +$97 +11%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $39 −$23 -60%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $65 +$33 +51%
France to win the second half? Jun 16 $25 +$19 +76%
France vs. Senegal: Second half draw? Jun 16 $15 −$14 -98%
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $68 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $903 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $16 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $39 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $97 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 3d
France vs. Senegal: Second half draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $7 4d
France to win the second half? BUY Yes 56¢ $13 4d
France vs. Senegal: Second half draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $7 4d
France to win the second half? BUY Yes 56¢ $13 4d
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.50 · official $67.50 (match) · 14 history records