Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:03:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
07 0x0778…4399 politics 181 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$13,609 (+4%) realized +$13,578 · open +$31
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate92%140W / 12L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$1,815per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$8,086now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,615
7 days+$2,186
14 days+$4,120
30 days+$7,096
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% +$6,570
politics 25% +$5,125
other 8% +$1,632
sports 2% +$109
crypto 0% −$12
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +20.4% +8.9% 100% 67% -0.4%
≤30d 24 +4.8% -5.2% 92% 12% -6.6%
≤90d 152 +0.3% -9.3% 92% 12% -5.7%
all 152 +0.3% -9.3% 92% 12% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 12% -5.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 5% -14.7%
15% -25.9% 4% -23.0%
20% -33.2% 3% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$1,197) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$239 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×6.61 per $1 lost it wins $6.61
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$8,086
Realized+$13,578
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses140 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions29
Markets (closed)152 / 181
History coverage73d
Avg bet$1,815
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 152 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 25, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $1,203 $1,210 +$7 (+1%)
Will Trump say "Football" during Tele-Rally? No 100¢ 100¢ $669 $670 +$1 (+0%)
Will Trump say "Tax" 7+ times during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $644 $650 +$7 (+1%)
Will Trump say "Job" 10+ times during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? No 100¢ 100¢ $384 $385 +$1 (+0%)
Will Trump say "Transgender" during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? No 100¢ 100¢ $374 $375 +$1 (+0%)
Will Trump say "Death Tax" during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $366 $367 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? No 99¢ 100¢ $305 $309 +$3 (+1%)
Will Trump say "Midterm" during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? No 99¢ 100¢ $291 $294 +$3 (+1%)
Will Trump say "Biden" 2+ times during Tele-Rally? No 100¢ 100¢ $285 $285 +$0 (+0%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 73¢ 73¢ $266 $267 +$1 (+0%)
Will Trump say "Thousand" or "Hundred" 10+ times during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? No 100¢ 100¢ $234 $235 +$1 (+0%)
Will Trump say "World Cup" during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? No 100¢ 100¢ $224 $225 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during Tele-Rally? No 100¢ 100¢ $204 $205 +$1 (+0%)
Will Trump say "Pool" during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $199 $199 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump say "Midterm" during Tele-Rally? No 100¢ 100¢ $189 $190 +$1 (+0%)
Will Trump say "Ballroom" during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? No 100¢ 100¢ $185 $185 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump say "Congress" during Tele-Rally? No 100¢ 100¢ $184 $185 +$1 (+0%)
Will Trump say "America First" during Tele-Rally? No 100¢ 100¢ $184 $185 +$1 (+0%)
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during Tele-Rally? No 100¢ 100¢ $184 $185 +$1 (+0%)
Will Trump say "Tractor" or "John Deere" during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $179 $179 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump say "Farm" or "Farmer" 5+ times during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $179 $179 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $179 $179 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 3+ times during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $179 $179 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump say "Beautiful" 5+ times during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $179 $179 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump say "Corn" during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $165 $165 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? Jun 26 $3,940 +$1,615 +41%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 22 $1,860 +$347 +19%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 20 $15,880 +$223 +1%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $3,116 +$31 +1%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? Jun 18 $8,873 +$99 +1%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 18 $3,611 +$255 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $33,000 +$1,251 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 17 $1,838 +$275 +15%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $3,683 +$15 +0%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $10,000 $0 +0%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $10,000 $0 +0%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? Jun 12 $4,252 +$8 +0%
Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw? Jun 09 $6,573 +$109 +2%
Will Grace Avelli be cast on Love Island UK: Season 13? Jun 02 $157 +$1 +0%
Will Charleen Murphy be cast on Love Island UK: Season 13? Jun 02 $250 +$1 +0%
Will Trump praise Pope Leo XIV by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $406 +$1 +0%
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by May 31? Jun 02 $406 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $389 +$17 +4%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $19,288 +$214 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $676 +$46 +7%
Will Trump praise Jesus by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,394 +$47 +3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026? May 29 $4,374 +$47 +1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 29 $4,252 +$123 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $78,838 +$2,370 +3%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 26 $6,717 +$294 +4%
Will Trump post "Dad" or "Daddy" on Truth Social this week? May 25 $272 +$49 +18%
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County? May 25 $4,226 +$2,995 +71%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 25 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 24, 2026? May 24 $4,343 +$8 +0%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $346 +$9 +3%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $4,415 +$88 +2%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $8,881 +$219 +2%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 20 $638 −$637 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15? May 19 $4,195 +$501 +12%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 17, 2026? May 18 $862 +$5 +0%
U.S. strike on Nigeria by June 30, 2026? May 16 $201 +$1 +1%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31? May 16 $399 +$5 +1%
Will Trump say "Cuba" this week? May 12 $1,532 +$3 +0%
Will Trump say "Pulitzer" in May? May 12 $4,035 +$9 +0%
Will Trump or Melania say "Space force" at the Military Mothers event? May 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump or Melania say "Greatest military" or "Strongest military" May 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Cuba" during events with Brazilian president? May 09 $9 $0 +1%
Will Trump or Melania say "Six Seven" at the Military Mothers event? May 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Transnational" or "Foreign Criminal Organization" duri May 09 $15 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "President Xi" during events with Brazilian president? May 09 $15 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Pelé" during events with Brazilian president? May 09 $15 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Get along" or "Getting along" during events with Brazi May 09 $15 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Prize" during events with Brazilian preside May 09 $15 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Maduro" during events with Brazilian president? May 09 $16 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? May 09 $18 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump say "Biden" 2+ times during Tele-Rally? BUY No 100¢ $285 39m
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during Tele-Rally? BUY No 100¢ $184 42m
Will Trump say "America First" during Tele-Rally? BUY No 100¢ $184 43m
Will Trump say "Football" during Tele-Rally? BUY No 100¢ $485 43m
Will Trump say "Football" during Tele-Rally? BUY No 100¢ $184 44m
Will Trump say "Congress" during Tele-Rally? BUY No 100¢ $184 44m
Will Trump say "Midterm" during Tele-Rally? BUY No 100¢ $5 45m
Will Trump say "Midterm" during Tele-Rally? BUY No 100¢ $184 46m
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during Tele-Rally? BUY No 100¢ $204 46m
Will Trump say "Zohran" or "Mamdani" during Tele-Rally? BUY No 100¢ $115 48m
Will Trump say "Thousand" or "Hundred" 10+ times during Rose Garden Cl BUY No 100¢ $234 1h
Will Trump say "Job" 10+ times during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? BUY No 100¢ $384 1h
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? BUY No 100¢ $179 1h
Will Trump say "Beautiful" 5+ times during Rose Garden Club Dinner eve BUY Yes 100¢ $179 1h
Will Trump say "Tax" 7+ times during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? BUY Yes 100¢ $264 1h
Will Trump say "Tax" 7+ times during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? BUY Yes 98¢ $380 1h
Will Trump say "Farm" or "Farmer" 5+ times during Rose Garden Club Din BUY Yes 100¢ $179 1h
Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 3+ times during Rose Garden Club Din BUY Yes 100¢ $179 1h
Will Trump say "Midterm" during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will Trump say "Midterm" during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? BUY No 100¢ $179 1h
Will Trump say "Ballroom" during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? BUY No 100¢ $185 1h
Will Trump say "Transgender" during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? BUY No 100¢ $96 1h
Will Trump say "World Cup" during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? BUY No 100¢ $185 1h
Will Trump say "Tractor" or "John Deere" during Rose Garden Club Dinne BUY Yes 100¢ $179 1h
Will Trump say "Corn" during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? BUY Yes 100¢ $165 1h
Will Trump say "Death Tax" during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? BUY Yes 100¢ $366 1h
Will Trump say "World Cup" during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? BUY No 99¢ $40 1h
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Rose Garden Cl BUY Yes 100¢ $14 1h
Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? BUY Yes 100¢ $179 1h
Will Trump say "Pool" during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? BUY Yes 100¢ $199 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,085.84 · official $8,085.84 (match) · 684 history records