Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:06:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x077a…c92f crypto 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$10 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate61%33W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$231now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 37% −$2
other 36% +$4
economics 10% −$3
politics 10% +$1
tech 8% −$11
sports 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +4.1% -5.8% 50% 0% -5.7%
≤30d 7 -13.1% -21.4% 29% 0% -12.6%
≤90d 21 -9.3% -18.0% 52% 5% -12.4%
all 54 -3.8% -12.9% 61% 4% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 4% -10.4%
10% -21.3% 4% -18.9%
15% -28.9% 0% -26.8%
20% -35.8% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$231
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses33 / 21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)54 / 56
History coverage236d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $220 $220 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $40 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May? Jun 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $40 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Solana dip to $10 in May? May 29 $50 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 07 $3 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 07 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 07 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 07 $11 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 07 $11 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 07 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 07 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 07 $5 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? May 07 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in March? May 07 $50 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb Mar 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 23 $8 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in February? Feb 24 $50 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 24 $10 +$3 +27%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 09 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 09 $59 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 02 $139 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Jan 26 $5 −$4 -87%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 26 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 26 $5 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? Jan 14 $15 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 09 $5 $0 -1%
Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? Jan 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 09 $40 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? Jan 09 $30 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 04 $40 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Jan 04 $30 $0 -0%
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? Jan 04 $1 $0 +2%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 04 $1 $0 +3%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 04 $2 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Jan 04 $2 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 04 $40 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%? Dec 20 $1 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 20 $16 +$1 +5%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 20 $70 $0 +0%
Will federal employees receive back pay after the government shutdown? Dec 02 $1 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Dec 02 $1 $0 +2%
Will Trump talk to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in November? Nov 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Nov 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the Government shutdown end by November 30? Nov 13 $53 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $220 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 2h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 15d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $40 15d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $40 18d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $40 18d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $40 21d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 21d
Will Solana dip to $10 in May? SELL No 100¢ $50 21d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $15 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $1 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $13 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 43d
Will Solana dip to $10 in May? BUY No 100¢ $50 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $10 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 43d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $5 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $1 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $230.94 · official $230.94 (match) · 164 history records