Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:27:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x077a…feb8 other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate56%19W / 15L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$1
other 24% +$1
politics 12% $0
crypto 5% +$1
sports 3% $0
economics 3% $0
culture 2% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 -1.2% -10.6% 20% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 10 -1.2% -10.6% 20% 0% -10.1%
all 34 -0.5% -10.0% 56% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 3% -9.4%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.5% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses19 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage454d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $46 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $7 $0 -5%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 02 $42 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $7 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $26 +$1 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $9 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 29 $16 −$2 -10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $31 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 -4%
Starmer out before July? May 30 $1 $0 -25%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? May 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? May 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? May 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? May 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Finland win the 2025 IIHF World Championship? May 23 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 22 $9 $0 +6%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% or more in April? May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 9–16? May 10 $10 $0 +2%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? May 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 08 $9 $0 +1%
Will Estonia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? May 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.70 in April? May 07 $9 +$1 +11%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 28 $3 $0 -7%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on March 28? Mar 28 $9 $0 +3%
Will “Adolescence: Limited Series” be the top global Netflix show this Mar 21 $12 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $46 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $46 3h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $6 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 14d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 14d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $14 14d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 14d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 14d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $42 15d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $42 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 38¢ $27 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $18 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $7 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $15 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $16 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $31 21d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $31 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 101 history records