Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:53:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x077c…8b1f weather 232 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (540 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$3,029 (+6%) realized +$4,972 · open −$1,943
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -79% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -84% what you keep after slip
Net edge-84%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate15%15W / 87L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day540.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$2,042
sports 17% −$22
politics 7% +$3
weather 6% −$450
crypto 5% +$165
culture 2% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (540 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-80.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 -78.8% -80.8% 15% 4% -18.0%
≤30d 102 -78.8% -80.8% 15% 4% -18.0%
≤90d 102 -78.8% -80.8% 15% 4% -18.0%
all 102 -78.8% -80.8% 15% 4% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover540.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -80.8% 4% -18.0%
10% ← realistic here -82.7% 4% -25.9%
15% -84.3% 4% -33.0%
20% -85.9% 3% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -79% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -63% → late -94% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$137 vs −$45 · ×3.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized+$4,972
Unrealized−$1,943
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses15 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions129
Markets (closed)102 / 232
History coverage1d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day540.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 129 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $42 $2 −$41 (-96%)
Will Javier Milei be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $76 $1 −$75 (-99%)
Will Anthony Albanese be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $76 $1 −$75 (-99%)
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $76 $1 −$75 (-99%)
Will Kim Jong Un be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $76 $1 −$75 (-99%)
Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $76 $1 −$75 (-99%)
Will Gavin Newsom be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $76 $1 −$75 (-99%)
Will Claudia Sheinbaum be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $76 $1 −$75 (-99%)
Will Jaleel Amador be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $43 $1 −$42 (-98%)
Will Oscar Romero be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $43 $1 −$42 (-98%)
Will Megan Rodriguez be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $43 $1 −$42 (-98%)
Will James Felton Keith be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $43 $1 −$42 (-98%)
Will Theo Chino-Tavarez be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $43 $1 −$42 (-98%)
Will Matt Miller be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $43 $1 −$42 (-98%)
Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $45 $1 −$44 (-99%)
Will Enrique Peñalosa win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $45 $1 −$44 (-99%)
Will Vicky Dávila win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $45 $1 −$44 (-99%)
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $45 $1 −$44 (-99%)
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $45 $1 −$44 (-99%)
Will David Luna Sánchez win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $45 $1 −$44 (-99%)
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $45 $1 −$44 (-99%)
Will Daniel Quintero win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $45 $1 −$44 (-99%)
Will Juan Carlos Pinzón win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $45 $1 −$44 (-99%)
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $45 $1 −$44 (-99%)
Will Juan Manuel Galán win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $45 $1 −$44 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 72 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands to score first vs. Sweden? Jun 20 $32 +$63 +200%
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $34 −$34 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $138 −$138 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Sweden? Jun 20 $34 −$34 -100%
Will MIBR win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 20? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will HEROIC win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will SINNERS win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 3 Sweden? Jun 20 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $138 −$138 -100%
Will Astralis win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Gaimin Gladiators win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will FlyQuest win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will TYLOO win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $138 −$138 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 20? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Thunder downunder win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will NRG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Sweden? Jun 20 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $138 −$138 -100%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C or below on June 20? Jun 20 $1 −$2 -449%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will GamerLegion win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $0 17m
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $64 35m
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 22¢ $3 35m
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 22¢ $12 35m
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $53 35m
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $44 35m
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $53 35m
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 22¢ $11 35m
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 62¢ $3 40m
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 65¢ $3 40m
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 67¢ $3 40m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 20? SELL Yes 99¢ $0 48m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 96°F or higher on June 20? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 48m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL Yes 62¢ $2 53m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL Yes 12¢ $0 53m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $0 53m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 88¢ $27 56m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 40¢ $13 56m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 69¢ $21 56m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 73¢ $7 56m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $10 56m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 39¢ $3 56m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 88¢ $9 56m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 71¢ $1 58m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 80¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 34¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 83¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 96°F or higher on June 20? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.36 · official $119.34 (match) · 692 history records